**AUD/USD Weekly Analysis and Outlook**
*Based on insights from ActionForex’s technical outlook (original article by ActionForex.com) with additional perspective from recent forex market resources.*
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**Summary of Recent Moves**
– The AUD/USD pair experienced heightened volatility last week, ultimately closing on a soft note after earlier attempts to build on recent gains.
– The pair stayed capped under the key resistance level at the 0.6713 mark, with bullish momentum stalling as market participants reassessed the economic and monetary policy outlooks for both Australia and the United States.
– While the bulls pushed AUD/USD to intraday highs early in the week, it faced rejection due to shifting sentiment around risk assets and continued strength of the US dollar.
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**Key Technical Levels: Tracking Resistance and Support**
– **Immediate Resistance:** 0.6713 is highlighted as the pivotal level for bulls. A consistent break above this would signal further upside potential.
– **Next Resistance Levels:** Should 0.6713 be breached, watch for resistance at the 0.6870 and 0.6894 areas.
– **Immediate Support:** The 55-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 0.6642 served as initial support during the recent pullback.
– **Secondary Support:** Significant support is observed near 0.6580, which aligns with recent swing lows.
– **Further Support Zones:** Should downside pressure intensify, the 0.6550 and 0.6461 levels come into focus, the latter representing a longer-term swing low.
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**Short-Term Price Action Analysis**
– **Trend Structure:** The AUD/USD pair remains in a consolidative range between 0.6461 and 0.6713.
– Attempts to break out have so far failed, indicating market indecision and the need for a clear catalyst.
– Price action indicates symmetrical triangle formation on the daily charts, signaling that the pair is at an inflection point.
– The inability to sustain upside movement highlights ongoing risk aversion and preference for the US dollar as a safe haven amid global economic uncertainties.
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**Momentum and Indicators**
– **Relative Strength Index (RSI):** The daily RSI hovers around the neutral 50 region, underscoring the lack of clear directional momentum.
– **MACD:** The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicates waning bullish momentum with a possible bearish crossover emerging.
– **Moving Averages:** The 20-day and 55-day EMAs are converging, which often precedes a larger directional move.
– **Volumes:** Trading volume has tapered off, pointing to market participants waiting for further signals from macroeconomic data and central bank policy.
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**Fundamental Drivers Affecting AUD/USD**
1. **US Dollar Performance:**
– The US dollar has remained resilient amid expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain a restrictive monetary stance.
– Markets are pricing in fewer rate cuts for 2024 due to persistent inflationary
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