**AUD/USD Weekly Outlook – Comprehensive Analysis and Forecast**
*Adapted and expanded from the original article on ActionForex.com*
**Original Author: ActionForex.com**
The AUD/USD pair exhibited a strong near-term recovery in the past week, pushing through key technical levels and showing signs of upward resilience amid mixed macroeconomic signals. The pair’s movement has generated interest among traders and investors as markets respond to evolving expectations around interest rates, economic indicators out of Australia and the U.S., and global risk sentiment.
This detailed outlook provides a robust analysis of the recent price action, key technical levels, and fundamental factors influencing the AUD/USD. Additionally, it integrates insights from other noteworthy sources to provide a comprehensive weekly perspective.
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## Weekly Performance Snapshot
– The Australian Dollar gained strength against the U.S. Dollar during the week, with AUD/USD rising from a low of 0.6570 to challenge resistance near the 0.6700 mark.
– Momentum turned positive, with a break above the 0.6643 resistance zone, implying a potential trend reversal or deeper corrective structure unfolding.
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## Technical Analysis
### Short-Term Movements
– The pair successfully held above the 55-Day EMA, which provided dynamic support through the week.
– Momentum indicators such as the 14-day RSI confirmed bullish divergence from recent lows, suggesting an increase in buying strength.
– A Bullish Engulfing Candlestick on the daily chart added to the upside conviction.
### Near-Term Resistance and Support Levels
**Resistance:**
– 0.6700: This level offers psychological and technical resistance, rounding off the current week’s high.
– 0.6738: June’s peak, representing the key level bulls must surpass for continued upside.
– 0.6800: A round number resistance and a historically important inflection zone.
**Support:**
– 0.6600: Previously a minor resistance, now converted to initial support.
– 0.6570: Weekly low and immediate downside target if corrections begin.
– 0.6525: A recent swing low; a break below here would reignite bearish pressure.
– 0.6457: May’s low and multi-month support zone.
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## Mid-to-Long-Term Technical Outlook
– The broader trend has been largely sideways since January 2024, with bullish attempts capped under 0.6800 and bearish pushes supported near 0.6450–0.6500.
– The rebound from the low of 0.6457 has helped the pair avoid a deeper decline into the 0.63 levels, keeping the medium-term structure neutral.
– Weekly RSI remains above the mid-point (50), supporting the view of a consolidating pattern with a mild upward bias.
**Fibonacci Levels (Year-to-Date Range: 0.6457 low to 0.6870 high):**
– 38.2% Retracement: ~0.6710
– 50% Retracement: ~0.6665
– 61.8% Retracement: ~0.6615
These levels will act as critical zones for both profit-taking and position adding.
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## Key Fundamental Drivers
### 1. Interest Rate Differentials
**Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA):**
– Maintained cash rate at 4.35% during its latest policy meeting.
– RBA Governor Michele Bullock indicated concerns around persistent inflation in services sectors.
– Limited forward guidance from RBA policy statements leaves the market speculating about whether the next move will be a hike or a cut.
– According to RBA’s own forecasts, inflation may return to the target band of 2–3% around mid-2025.
**Federal Reserve:**
– Fed’s June meeting was relatively hawkish, projecting just one rate cut in 2024.
– Strong U.S. jobs data and sticky inflation have limited the potential for dovish pivot.
– However, softening
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