**GBP/USD Price Forecast Remains Below 1.3450; Nine-Day EMA Acts as Resistance**
*Original reporting by FXStreet Team. Analysis adapted and expanded for an in-depth look at GBP/USD trends.*
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## Summary
The British Pound (GBP) continues to face downward pressure against the US Dollar (USD), with the GBP/USD pair unable to overcome the critical 1.3450 resistance level. The nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has consistently capped bullish attempts, and technical signals continue to favor a cautious approach.
This article comprehensively examines the prevailing technical and fundamental factors influencing GBP/USD, analyzes recent price action, and outlines key levels and scenarios for traders to monitor.
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## Current Price Overview
– The GBP/USD pair remains confined below the 1.3450 region, lacking bullish conviction.
– Price action shows repeated failure at the nine-day EMA, emphasizing bearish dominance.
– Short-term momentum indicators align with further downside prospects, particularly against a strengthening US Dollar.
## Recent Price Action and Immediate Trend
GBP/USD has seen multiple attempts to break above resistance, but sellers have quickly regained control each time. The pair’s rejection at the nine-day EMA, coupled with lower highs on the chart, indicates a clear bearish bias in the short term.
### Price Action Highlights
– An initial rally earlier in the session stalled at the nine-day EMA, reinforcing it as an immediate resistance.
– Despite intraday bounces, buyers have been unable to generate sustained upward momentum.
– The pair has formed a series of lower swing highs since failing to hold above 1.3500 in late December.
## Technical Factors Shaping GBP/USD
### 1. Key Moving Averages
– **Nine-Day EMA:** This moving average has been pivotal, consistently attracting selling interest. The inability to close above this level underlines its importance as dynamic resistance.
– **Longer-term Averages:** The 50- and 200-day EMAs (noted on daily charts but not specifically addressed in this session) remain well above current prices, further confirming the downward trend.
### 2. Support and Resistance Levels
– **Immediate Resistance:** 1.3450, marked by both horizontal chart resistance and the location of the nine-day EMA.
– **Immediate Support:** 1.3400, a psychological and technical support zone, followed by 1.3350.
– **Key Pivot Zone:** 1.3380–1.3400 acts as a make-or-break area. A sustainable move below here would expose deeper downside.
### 3. Oscillators and Momentum Readings
– **Relative Strength Index (RSI):** The RSI remains below 50, consistent with a lack of bullish momentum.
– **MACD Indicator:** The MACD remains in negative territory, supporting the case for continued downside probing.
– **Volume Analysis:** Subdued volumes during upward moves versus heavier volume on drops suggest stronger conviction among sellers.
### 4. Chart Formations
– A minor descending channel has emerged, defined by lower swing highs and lows.
– The price’s repeated failure to generate higher highs cements the bearish technical structure.
## Fundamental Backdrop
Beyond technical signals, several fundamental drivers continue to influence GBP/USD dynamics:
### US Dollar Strength
– The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains strong amid ongoing Federal Reserve policy tightening.
– Expectations of higher US rates and global risk aversion support the Greenback.
### Bank of England Policy
– The Bank of England’s cautious approach on rate hikes undermines Sterling’s appeal.
– Mixed UK economic data creates uncertainty, reducing the likelihood of aggressive tightening.
### Economic Data Releases
Recent data prints have underscored the divergence in US and UK economic outlook:
– **US Payrolls:** Strong labor market data supports Fed’s hawkish stance.
– **UK GDP and Inflation:** Mixed outcomes, with lingering post-pandemic headwinds.
– **Upcoming Events:** Markets are watching for inflation data and
Read more on GBP/USD trading.