**GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: 1st to 6th February 2026**
*Original Analysis by: Mahmoud Abdallah, DailyForex.com*
The British pound’s trajectory against the US dollar during the first week of February 2026 draws significant trader and investor attention. Market participants are poised to react to key macroeconomic releases and shifting sentiment around US Federal Reserve and Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy. This forecast presents an in-depth technical and fundamental breakdown of GBP/USD for the week, exploring potential catalysts, price zones of interest, and strategic considerations for forex traders.
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**Fundamental Backdrop**
The GBP/USD pair’s performance hinges on several interlocking macro factors:
– **US Federal Reserve Rate Policy:** Investors are scrutinizing Fed communications for guidance on the path of interest rates in 2026. Persistent inflation or firm labor data could maintain a hawkish tilt, supporting the dollar.
– **Bank of England Outlook:** The BoE remains cautious amid mixed signals from the UK economy. While wage growth and labor market resilience bolster the pound, the risk of a slowdown or dovish signals could drag GBP lower.
– **Risk Sentiment:** Broader global appetite for risk assets impacts safe haven flows toward the US dollar. Geopolitical developments, economic releases, and equity market trends can shift GBP/USD accordingly.
– **Key Economic Releases:** Both the UK and US will issue crucial data throughout the week, with the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday acting as a potential major catalyst.
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**UK Economic Calendar Highlights**
Traders will pay close attention to the following UK releases:
– **UK Manufacturing PMI:** Signals factory sector health, impacts GBP on deviations from expectations.
– **UK Services PMI:** A significant driver of GBP, as services comprise the dominant share of UK GDP.
– **BoE Policy Comments or Speeches:** Any hints of change in rate policy or forward guidance.
– **Other Economic Data:** Construction PMI, Halifax House Price Index, and other figures could shift short-term sentiment.
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**US Economic Calendar Highlights**
From the US, the following are in focus:
– **ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI:** Breadth of economic strength or weakness in the US.
– **ADP Employment Change (Private Payroll):** Seen as a prelude to Friday’s NFP jobs data.
– **Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and Unemployment Rate:** The most impactful release of the week for global FX. Outperformance could ignite a USD surge, whereas disappointment could fuel a GBP bounce.
– **Fed Official Speeches:** Extra scrutiny on rhetoric after recent policy meetings.
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**Technical Analysis: GBP/USD**
**Weekly Chart Outlook**
– **Recent Trend:** The pair has displayed a cautious consolidation within a prevailing uptrend but faces resistance from multi-week highs.
– **Momentum Indicators:** Relative Strength Index (RSI) is mid-range, suggesting equilibrium but with potential for volatility on data releases.
– **Moving Averages:** The 50-week and 200-week moving averages are being monitored as trend-defining technical thresholds.
**Key Support and Resistance Levels**
– **Support Zones:**
– 1.2500: Psychological level; also aligns with recent lows.
– 1.2400: Deeper support, last seen as a bounce zone in December 2025.
– 1.2320: Significant floor from Q4 2025, would suggest a shift in sentiment if breached.
– **Resistance Zones:**
– 1.2770: Local highs, representing the first major barrier to further gains.
– 1.2850: Multi-month upper range top; a close above here would signal renewed bullish sentiment.
– 1.3000: Psychological level, round number, and historical ceiling for bulls.
**Technical Scenarios for the Week**
– **Bullish Case:** Sustained closes above 1.2770 could embolden buyers,
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