**AUD/USD Daily Forecast: Analysis and Technical Outlook**
*Based on insights from the TradingView article by TradingShot and further market research.*
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### Introduction
The Australian Dollar and US Dollar (AUD/USD) pair serves as a key indicator of strength in global forex markets, particularly reflecting the economic health of Australia versus the United States. This analysis explores the price action and underlying technical signals for AUD/USD, focusing on daily chart dynamics, key support and resistance levels, and potential future movements. Additional perspectives on macroeconomic factors and market sentiment will support a comprehensive forecast for traders and investors.
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### Overview of AUD/USD
– AUD/USD is a major currency pair, widely traded due to the economic stability of both countries.
– Heavily influenced by commodities, particularly iron ore and gold, exports from Australia.
– Sensitive to US Federal Reserve monetary policy and risk sentiment in global markets.
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### Recent Price Action
#### Downward Channel Dynamics
– AUD/USD has been moving within a well-defined descending channel for the past several months.
– This channel outlines lower highs and lower lows, consistent with a bearish trend.
– The price action, since late last year, has shown repeated rejections at the upper boundary of the channel, reinforcing the resistance.
#### Support Levels
– A strong horizontal support is positioned around 0.6450.
– This level has been tested multiple times, holding firm against bearish pushes.
– The channel’s lower boundary currently aligns with levels near 0.6400, offering additional support.
#### Resistance Levels
– Immediate resistance is established near 0.6550.
– This is where the upper boundary of the descending channel converges with previous swing highs.
– The next significant resistance sits at approximately 0.6620, coinciding with former support-turned-resistance.
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### Technical Indicator Insights
#### Moving Averages
– **50-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA):**
– Currently trending above the price, further affirming bearish sentiment.
– Serves as a dynamic resistance level, capping price rallies.
– **200-Day SMA:**
– Still well above recent price action, acting as a strategic long-term resistance.
– Pullbacks toward these moving averages typically encounter selling pressure.
#### Relative Strength Index (RSI)
– The daily RSI is hovering near the midpoint (around 50) after recent recovery attempts.
– This suggests a pause between overbought and oversold conditions.
– Abrupt declines to RSI levels below 40 have previously emerged as short-term entry points for buyers.
#### Volume Profile
– Recent months have seen declining trading volumes, especially during consolidations at major support zones.
– Sharp volume spikes have correlated with breakouts or failures at channel boundaries.
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### Elliott Wave Perspective
– The corrective phase within the descending channel could represent a classic ABC correction, a common pattern in forex corrections.
– If so, the price could be completing a C-wave, implying a reversal or consolidation could follow
Read more on AUD/USD trading.