**USD Data Softens Growth Expectations: Analysis from TD Securities**
*Original reporting by FXStreet, with additional insights incorporated.*
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The recent economic landscape in the United States has been shaped by a shift in growth expectations, driven by new macroeconomic data. According to a research report from TD Securities and analysis by FXStreet, incoming economic indicators for the US have started to display a softening in the pace of economic expansion, which in turn has impacted the outlook for the USD going forward.
This article explores the details and implications of these developments, offering a comprehensive examination of how recent US data is impacting the growth narrative, monetary policy expectations, and the value of the US dollar across global currency markets. Additional commentary from other credible market sources is also integrated to provide a full-spectrum view of the current economic scenario.
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### Recent US Economic Data: A Summary
According to TD Securities analysts, several pieces of recent macroeconomic data have fallen short of expectations. These underwhelming numbers have collectively contributed to a more cautious outlook for economic growth in the United States, especially in the short to medium term.
**Key Economic Announcements and Their Impact:**
– **Retail Sales:** Recent reports have shown that consumer spending, a central engine of US economic growth, has not delivered robust results. Weakness in retail sales figures has been particularly notable, reflecting possible consumer fatigue or tighter financial conditions.
– **Industrial Production:** There has been a modest contraction in manufacturing activity, with output readings signaling ongoing challenges in the industrial sector.
– **Labor Market Data:** While US employment remains relatively strong in historical terms, recent Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment numbers reflect a cooling trend. Wage growth has moderated slightly, tempering previous fears of an overheating labor market.
– **Inflation:** The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data reveal a gradual normalization of inflation pressures. However, the pace remains above the Federal Reserve’s longer-term target, which complicates the policy outlook.
– **Housing Market:** Mortgage application activity and housing starts have declined, weighed down by high borrowing costs, which in turn restrain overall economic momentum.
All these factors have contributed to a reassessment of the US growth narrative. Data points that previously signaled strong resilience now appear to suggest a more moderated expansion heading into the second half of the year.
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### TD Securities Assessment: A Shift in Tone
The team at TD Securities, as referenced by FXStreet, emphasizes a growing sense of caution. Their core messages can be distilled as follows:
– **Growth Prospects:** The sequence of softer economic data has led to a more reserved tone on growth. Expectations for outsized GDP expansion are being reevaluated in light of recent figures.
– **Policy Implications:** With data pointing toward less vigorous growth, TD Securities projects that further interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve are now less likely in the short-term.
– **USD Outlook:** The US dollar, which previously benefitted from positive economic surprises
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