Original Source: Matt Weller, CFA, CMT via FOREX.com
Link: https://www.forex.com/en-us/news-and-analysis/eur-usd-forecast-currency-pair-of-the-week-july-7-2025-2025-07-07/
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# EUR/USD Weekly Outlook: Key Drivers for July 7, 2025 – Rewritten and Expanded Forecast
As financial markets enter the second week of July 2025, one currency pair standing at the forefront of investor attention is EUR/USD. This pair, often referred to as “Fiber” in trading circles, is one of the most heavily traded in the forex market, accounting for a significant share of daily global FX volume.
Matt Weller, CFA, CMT, and a leading analyst at FOREX.com, highlighted the EUR/USD pair as the “Currency Pair of the Week” for the week starting July 7, 2025. This distinction comes amid a dense backdrop of macroeconomic developments, diverging monetary policies, and significant political transitions in both Europe and the United States.
In the following expansive analysis, we’ll look into:
– The technical picture of EUR/USD
– The fundamental catalysts impacting both the euro and the dollar
– Key data releases to watch this week
– Central bank expectations and their effects on currency movements
– Broader market sentiment and geopolitical risk factors
– Trade ideas and strategies for traders
Let’s break it all down.
## 1. Technical Overview: EUR/USD in Retest Mode
Let’s start by examining the price dynamics of EUR/USD over recent weeks.
– Following a 300-pip rally in late June and early July, driven mainly by U.S. dollar weakness and a rebound in risk appetite, the EUR/USD pair reached considerable resistance near the 1.0950–1.1000 zone.
– From a technical standpoint, this area marks several recent highs stemming from Q2 2025, contributing to a strong confluence of selling interest at that level.
– Price has since pulled back, finding initial support near the 1.0850 handle.
According to Weller’s analysis:
– The pair is currently attempting a retest of a key breakout area near 1.0800–1.0850.
– If this zone holds as support, a resumption of the bullish trend could occur.
– Bears will want to see a close below this area to confirm a short-term reversal in price direction.
Indicators and chart setups to watch:
– The
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