EUR/USD Forex Signal: Technical Analysis and Forecast – July 7, 2025
Originally published on DailyForex by DailyForex Analyst
Overview
The EUR/USD currency pair has recently shown renewed volatility following key economic developments in both the Eurozone and the United States. As the pair continues to oscillate within a medium-term consolidation zone, traders and investors are watching for clearer directional signals amid speculation about future central bank policies.
After a brief recovery, the euro is once again under pressure as the USD regains strength from rising Treasury yields and safe-haven inflows. Meanwhile, weaker-than-expected European data and persistent inflationary concerns in the U.S. have put monetary tightening back in focus.
Technical Background
The following analysis reflects the price behavior of EUR/USD as of Monday, July 7, 2025. The current technical landscape suggests a battle between bulls attempting to reclaim higher ground and bears aiming to defend key resistance levels.
Current Price: Around 1.0780 (subject to market conditions).
Key Technical Observations:
– The EUR/USD recently failed to break robust resistance at 1.0840, marking the second rejection at this level within a week.
– The price has since retreated and is now holding above the 100-period EMA on the 4-hour chart, indicating moderate bearish pressure.
– Short-term directional momentum shows weakness, with both RSI and MACD indicators signaling possible consolidation before the next major move.
– H4 chart patterns present a symmetrical triangle formation, suggesting potential breakout volatility in coming sessions.
Resistance Levels to Monitor:
– 1.0815 – Intraday resistance and lower trendline of descending channel.
– 1.0840 – Double top formation, strong horizontal resistance.
– 1.0885 – 200-day moving average and historical psychological barrier.
Support Levels to Watch:
– 1.0750 – Minor support and psychological level where bulls previously entered the market.
– 1.0720 – Key horizontal level tested multiple times in late June and early July.
– 1.0680 – Lower boundary of current sideways channel support.
Fundamental Drivers Impacting EUR/USD
Monetary Policy Outlook:
– The Federal Reserve continues to maintain a “data-dependent” posture, leading to speculation over whether another interest rate hike might be justified in 2025.
– U.S. employment data released last Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls along with higher average hourly earnings, reinforcing hawkish expectations.
– On the other hand, the European Central Bank (ECB) has signaled reluctance to continue tightening amid mounting recessionary risks across major EU economies.
Macroeconomic
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