**GBP/USD Forex Signal: 10 July 2025**
*By Adam Lemon, DailyForex.com*
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The GBP/USD currency pair remains a focal point for Forex traders as the market digests a range of economic and political developments on both sides of the Atlantic. On July 10, 2025, the British pound faced heightened volatility against the US dollar, as traders sought to navigate evolving themes of monetary policy divergence, inflationary pressures, and post-election adjustments in the United Kingdom.
In today’s analysis, we will break down the technical picture for GBP/USD, review fundamental drivers, and provide actionable trading ideas for the coming sessions. All insights are based on price movements and trending forces as observed in the London and early New York trading sessions.
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### GBP/USD Recap and Market Context
Heading into July 10, the GBP/USD attempted to consolidate above the 1.2800 psychological level, having staged a rebound in the wake of softer-than-expected US inflation data and renewed optimism about the UK’s political stability. However, the pair struggled to extend its gains meaningfully higher, held in check by a resilient US job market and cautious rhetoric from Federal Reserve officials.
Several key developments have shaped sentiment around the GBP/USD pair:
– **UK General Election Aftermath:** The Labour Party’s landslide victory brought hopes for increased market stability and a potential pivot in fiscal policy, though investors remain alert to the new government’s spending intentions.
– **US Federal Reserve Signals:** The Fed maintained a data-dependent stance, keeping the prospect of interest rate cuts on the table but warning that persistent inflation could require a higher-for-longer rates environment.
– **Economic Data Releases:** Recent UK GDP and PMI figures showed modest improvement, while US employment data outperformed forecasts, lending some support to the dollar.
These factors have created a choppy trading environment, with both sterling bulls and bears vying for dominance as the market awaits clear directional cues.
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### Technical Analysis
Short-term price action indicates that GBP/USD remains within a well-defined trading range, with key support and resistance levels capping momentum in either direction. Let’s examine the current technical setup across multiple timeframes.
#### Daily Chart Overview
– The pair is trading just above its 20-day simple moving average (SMA), a sign of near-term bullish sentiment, but remains below the 50-day and 100-day SMAs, suggesting medium-term consolidation.
– The relative strength index (RSI) is hovering around neutral territory (close to 50), indicating a lack of clear momentum.
– Recent candlestick patterns point to indecision, with alternating bullish and bearish closes just above the 1.2800 handle.
#### Key Technical Levels
– **Support:**
– 1.2770 (previous session’s low / base of recent consolidation range)
– 1.2725 (50-day SMA support and pivot)
– 1.2680 (multi-week swing low and psychological level)
– **Resistance:**
– 1.2845 (short-term swing high / intraday resistance)
– 1.2890 (year-to-date high and significant barrier)
– 1.2950 (key psychological level and major resistance zone)
#### 1-Hour Chart Observations
– Short-term momentum suggests a minor bullish bias above 1.2800.
– However, repeated failures to close above 1.2845 point to exhaustion among buyers.
– The MACD indicator is showing declining bullish momentum, raising risks of a corrective pullback.
#### Chart Patterns
– There are early signs of a potential ascending triangle on hourly charts, with price making higher lows while facing repeated resistance at the 1.2845 area.
– A break above this level could attract fresh buying interest and expose higher targets toward 1.2890 and 1.2950.
– Conversely, a drop below 1.2770 opens the door for deeper losses back to 1.
Read more on GBP/USD trading.