**The GBP/USD Is Under Negative Pressure – In-depth Analysis (11-07-2025)**
*Credit: Based on analysis from Economies.com*
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### Introduction
The GBP/USD currency pair, a key indicator of the relationship between the British Pound Sterling and the US Dollar, has recently been subjected to sustained negative pressure. The movement of this major forex pair reflects a complex web of economic, political, and technical factors. According to the latest analysis from Economies.com, the pair is navigating a volatile market environment characterized by persistent bearish signals.
This article aims to offer an in-depth exploration of the forces shaping GBP/USD’s trajectory, drawing on both the fundamental context and the technical setup elaborated in the original source. Additionally, it discusses potential scenarios traders may expect in the forthcoming sessions and presents an actionable trading outlook.
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### Current Market Overview
The GBP/USD has faced notable downward pressure in recent sessions. This decline can be attributed to several distinct factors:
– **US Dollar Strength:** The greenback has firmed up significantly on the back of hawkish Federal Reserve commentary, robust economic releases, and persistent inflation concerns.
– **UK Economic Weakness:** The British economy is experiencing subdued growth, burdensome inflation, and political uncertainty. Recent data points, such as softening job reports and lackluster retail sales, have weighed on the Pound.
– **Technical Setup:** The pair is trading below pivotal moving averages and key support levels, amplifying bearish signals.
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### Detailed Technical Analysis
#### **Daily Chart Insights**
– GBP/USD is currently trading below both the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), which acts as a confirmation of the bearish trend.
– The price action has broken through a previously respected key support at **1.2650**, and is testing further downside levels.
– A strong bearish candle pattern was observed in Thursday’s session, reinforcing sellers’ control.
– The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 threshold, suggesting that downside momentum is active but not yet in the oversold territory.
#### **Key Support and Resistance Levels**
– **Immediate Resistance:** 1.2650 (recently broken support now acting as resistance)
– **Next Resistance:** 1.2730 (50-day EMA)
– **Immediate Support:** 1.2540 (current level of interest)
– **Further Support:** Zone between 1.2450 and 1.2475
#### **Moving Average and Indicator Snapshot**
– 50-day EMA: Bearishly sloped, capping upside attempts.
– 200-day EMA: Far above current price, further underlining the negative trend.
– RSI: Near 42, indicating room for more downside.
– MACD: Negative histogram, increasing gap between MACD and signal lines.
#### **Trend Assessment**
– Short-term trend: Bearish
– Medium-term trend: Bearish
– Long-term trend: Cautiously bearish, pending reaction at key structural supports
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### Key Fundamental Drivers
#### **US Dollar Outlook**
– **Federal Reserve Policy:** Recent Fed minutes and statements suggest rates will remain elevated for longer than previously anticipated. The steadfast approach by the Fed to tame inflation supports the US Dollar.
– **US Economic Data:** Strong non-farm payrolls, higher-than-expected CPI data, and resilient consumer confidence continue to create a favorable environment for USD appreciation.
– **Global Risk Sentiment:** Amid geopolitical uncertainties and potential economic shocks, safe-haven flows favor the Dollar.
#### **UK Economic and Political Dynamics**
– **Stagnant Growth:** The British economy is hovering near stagnation, with GDP growth barely positive in recent quarters.
– **Inflation:** Although inflation has retreated from peak levels, it remains above the Bank of England’s (BoE) target, constraining policy flexibility.
– **BoE Policy:** The central bank’s cautious approach (reluctance to raise rates aggressively) has been interpreted as
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