Below is a rewritten and expanded version of the article published on Economies.com titled “Forecast Update for EUR/USD – 10-07-2025,” authored by Economies.com. The content below maintains the essence of the original analysis while expanding it to more than 1000 words for enhanced depth, including technical analysis, broader contextual insights, and key forex trading implications.
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Title: In-Depth EUR/USD Analysis and Forecast Update – July 10, 2025
Original Author: Economies.com
Overview:
The EUR/USD currency pair shows continued bearish momentum in today’s trade, maintaining a downward trajectory which started after breaching critical support levels. Today’s updated analysis takes an in-depth look at current chart behavior, key technical indicators, broader economic context, and what traders should watch for in the near term.
Technical Breakdown – July 10, 2025:
– The pair remains under strong bearish pressure, moving decisively below the 1.0800 mark.
– EUR/USD has respected a descending trendline on the intraday chart, preventing any significant recovery attempts.
– The pair’s movement remains below both the 50-period and 100-period EMA, suggesting prevailing selling pressure.
– Fibonacci retracement levels from the last bullish swing (June low to late June peak) show a significant break below the 61.8% level — usually a signal of deeper correction or trend reversal.
The key current levels are:
– Resistance: 1.0770, 1.0825, and 1.0870
– Support: 1.0715, 1.0670, and 1.0620
Indicators in Focus:
– Relative Strength Index (RSI): The 14-period RSI on H4 charts is currently hovering around 35, showing bearish dominance without fully entering oversold territory. This leaves room for additional downside before a technical rebound is expected.
– MACD: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains firmly in the negative, with the histogram expanding downward, confirming the continuation of bearish momentum.
– Stochastic Oscillator: Trading in the oversold region but not yet signaling a bullish crossover — suggesting that sellers still control momentum in the short term.
Bearish Trend Confirmation:
The pair continues to trade within a well-defined descending channel, with lower highs and lower lows reinforcing the bearish trend. The structure remains intact as long as price remains beneath the key resistance at 1.0825, a level that aligns with the 50-period EMA on the H4 chart.
Price Action Summary:
– The inability of the bulls to hold the 1.0800 handle has triggered a new wave of selling.
– The clean break beneath 1.0770 and successive bounces off the descending trendline reinforce the bearish outlook.
– Short-term rebounds are being treated as opportunities for short entries by technical traders.
Market Context:
Several macroeconomic factors are also influencing EUR/USD price action beyond technical charts. As of July 2025, global forex markets are responding to a mix of diverging monetary policy, inflation data, and geopolitical headlines.
Key Fundamentals Affecting EUR/USD:
1. Divergent Monetary Policy:
– The European Central Bank (ECB) is signaling potential rate cuts to counteract softening inflation and sluggish growth, while the U.S. Federal Reserve continues to maintain a restrictive stance. This divergence supports a stronger USD relative to the euro.
– U.S. interest rates remaining elevated increase demand for the USD, adding further bearish bias for EUR/USD.
2. European Economic Data:
– Recently released data points from the Eurozone — particularly dismal industrial production and stagnating services PMI — have increased concerns over an economic slowdown.
– Germany, Europe’s largest economy, reported contraction in factory orders, adding to the bearish euro sentiment.
3. U.S. Economic Strength:
– Strong U.S. labor market data and a resilient consumer sector suggest continued economic strength, further
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