Title: Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold – Projections for July 2025 and Beyond
Source: Adapted and expanded from EWM Interactive’s original article by Ivo Luhse
Gold has long held a reputation as one of the most reliable safe-haven assets in the global financial system. Its role as a store of value in times of geopolitical uncertainty or economic decline has made it a focus of many traders and investors. As of mid-2025, gold prices have seen significant volatility, and Elliott Wave analysis suggests that more fluctuations and potential trend reversals lie ahead.
This article offers an in-depth breakdown of the Elliott Wave structure in gold as presented by Ivo Luhse of EWM Interactive, with expanded commentary and context from other market sources. We explore the complex technical setup that guides price behavior and provide projections for the precious metal through the lens of wave theory, macroeconomic drivers, and geopolitical dynamics.
Overview of Elliott Wave Theory
Before delving into the chart specifics, let’s briefly revisit what Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) entails for those unfamiliar:
– Developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s
– Based on the idea that markets move in repetitive cycles or “waves”
– These waves are driven by mass investor psychology and emotion
– A complete Elliott Wave sequence generally includes:
– Five-wave impulse structure (labeled 1-2-3-4-5) in the direction of the main trend
– Three-wave corrective move (labeled A-B-C) in the opposite direction
Understanding the current position of gold within the Elliott Wave sequence allows traders to forecast potential trend reversals, rallies, or declines with disciplined objectivity.
The Long-Term Gold Outlook: Completing a Cycle
According to EWM Interactive’s July 14, 2025 analysis, gold’s long-term chart reveals an important structural development.
Key Points:
– In early 2020, gold surged to record highs during the COVID-19 pandemic, peaking above $2,075 per ounce.
– Since then, gold entered a corrective phase, leading to a prolonged and complex consolidation pattern.
– The correction corresponds to a “wave (4)” scenario, following a five-wave cycle from the late 1990s until 2020, labeled as waves (1) through (3) within a broader cycle degree.
Ivo Luhse argues that gold is close to completing wave (4) and forming the base for a bullish wave (5) advance.
Understanding the Waves in Gold
Here’s the complete proposed Elliott Wave count from the early 2000s through 2025:
– Wave (1): Began around 2001 and ended near 2008 at approximately $1,000
– Wave (2): A sharp correction during the financial crisis in 2008–2009
– Wave (3): One of the longest and strongest advances, peaking in 2020 (above $2,075)
– Wave (4): The current corrective structure we are in
– Wave (5): The anticipated next impulse wave, expected to push gold to fresh all-time highs
The Correction: What’s Going On in Wave (4)?
Wave (4) corrections often take the form of complex patterns, and according to the analysis, gold’s wave (4) is unfolding as a triangle—a classic Elliott Wave structure characterized by five sub-waves (A-B-C-D-E) forming a sideways consolidation.
Highlights from Elliott Wave Triangle Structure in Gold:
– Wave A of the triangle began post-2020 peak and led to a sharp decline below $1,700 in 2021
– Wave B rebounded in 2022–2023, testing resistance near $2,050 again
– Wave C pulled the price back down again in 2024, forming a lower low
– Wave D occurred in early 2025, showing a rally attempt, failing at the $2,020–$2,030
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