**AUD/USD Weekly Analysis and Outlook**
*Adapted and expanded from the weekly report by ActionForex.com. Additional market context and technical insights included.*
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### **Market Context: AUD/USD Recent Performance**
The Australian Dollar (AUD) finished last week with a modest gain against the US Dollar (USD), as the AUD/USD pair managed to hold above recent lows. However, market moves were relatively contained, influenced by cautious market sentiment, central bank policy outlooks, and mixed economic data from both Australia and the United States.
**Key factors influencing the pair included:**
– Divergent central bank rhetoric: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintains a data-dependent, somewhat hawkish tone, while the US Federal Reserve signaled patience in monetary policy changes.
– Commodity market stability: Iron ore, Australia’s primary export, bounced back, supporting the Aussie Dollar’s floor.
– US economic data: Strong US employment and subdued inflation data continued to bolster the greenback, limiting any AUD upside.
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### **Technical Overview: AUD/USD**
**Weekly Chart Perspective:**
– The AUD/USD attempted a rebound last week, climbing from the previous lows near 0.6570 to briefly test above the 0.6700 mark.
– The rally lacked momentum to break and sustain above resistance levels, indicating underlying bearish pressures.
– Key moving averages show the pair trading just below the 55-week EMA, reflecting a lack of medium-term bullish conviction.
**Key Technical Levels (as of last week’s close):**
– **Support:** 0.6570 – 0.6550 (recent swing low area; double bottom support)
– **Resistance:** 0.6706 (recent intraday high), followed by 0.6738 and 0.6870 (medium-term resistance)
– **Trendline:** The descending trendline from this year’s high serves as dynamic resistance near 0.6720.
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### **Price Action Analysis**
#### 1. **Trend Structure**
– The broader trend remains bearish, with lower highs and lower lows shaping the chart since December 2023.
– Rallies have frequently encountered resistance at the 0.6700 – 0.6750 region, drawing sellers back into the market.
#### 2. **Momentum Indicators**
– **RSI (Relative Strength Index):** Stays neutral, slightly above 40, suggesting no clear directional bias.
– **MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):** Remains below the zero line, but histograms show diminishing bearish momentum.
– **Stochastic Oscillator:** Nearly oversold, indicating scope for short-term upside corrections.
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### **Fundamental Developments Impacting AUD/USD**
#### **Australian Economic Outlook**
– **RBA Policy Stance:**
– The RBA left rates unchanged, as widely expected. Its statement highlighted “uncertainty” around inflation, signaling a reluctance to move toward cuts in the near term.
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