**Weekly Forex Forecast for DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURAUD, and XAUUSD: July 21-25, 2025**
*By Justin Bennett | Source: Daily Price Action*
As global markets move into the third week of July 2025, forex traders are closely monitoring developments across major currency pairs and commodities. The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains at the center of attention, influencing not just USD crosses but also risk sentiment across the forex spectrum. In this detailed weekly forecast, we will examine the technical outlook and trading strategies for DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURAUD, and XAUUSD for the week of July 21 to 25, 2025. This analysis relies on price action, key support and resistance levels, and recent macroeconomic developments to provide actionable trade ideas and guidance.
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### **1. US Dollar Index (DXY) Overview**
#### **Technical Picture**
– DXY remains at a pivotal point in July following weeks of consolidation near multi-month highs.
– The index’s recent price action suggests a battle between buyers protecting critical support and sellers leaning on established resistance.
#### **Key Levels**
– **Resistance:** 105.50–106.00 zone remains the main obstacle for bulls.
– **Support:** 104.00 is a significant floor, with a secondary level at 103.50.
– **Intermediate Range:** Price action oscillating between 105.00 and 104.30.
#### **What to Watch**
– A daily close above 106.00 could trigger a fresh bullish impulse, targeting 107.20.
– If bears force a break below 104.00, expect acceleration toward 103.50 and potentially 102.80.
#### **Fundamental Factors**
– Recent data from the Federal Reserve signals continued data dependency, with the market torn between soft-landing optimism and sticky inflation fears.
– Watch for updates around inflation prints and FOMC commentary, both of which may jolt DXY from its current consolidation.
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### **2. EURUSD Forecast**
#### **Technical Setup**
– EURUSD traded in a sideways channel for much of July, held in check by both DXY strength and relative eurozone economic uncertainty.
– Recent swing highs saw supply near 1.0900 cap rallies, with bids clustering around 1.0800.
#### **Key Levels**
– **Resistance:** 1.0890 to 1.0910 remains a significant barrier. A clean break above 1.0910 opens up 1.1000.
– **Support:** 1.0790 has provided support. A decisive break and daily close below 1.0780 exposes 1.0700.
#### **Trading Strategies**
– Watch for rejection candles or pin bar setups near 1.0910 for short entries.
– Look for bullish confirmation at or just above 1.0790 for potential swing longs, targeting the mid-1.0800s.
#### **Macro Themes**
– Euro area data, including PMI surveys and ECB policy expectations, will shape direction.
– The pair remains vulnerable to shifts in DXY momentum, especially if US data surprises to the upside.
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### **3. GBPUSD Analysis**
#### **Technical Outlook**
– GBPUSD resumed choppy sideways price action after retracing from a recent high near 1.2950.
– The pound has found support near 1.2750, with a broader sideways bias evident.
#### **Key Levels**
– **Resistance:** 1.2900 is the immediate upper barrier, followed by the psychological 1.3000 level.
– **Support:** 1.2750 is acting as near-term support, with the critical long-term level at 1.2670.
#### **Potential Scenarios**
– Look for bearish signals if bulls fail to reclaim 1.2900 on a daily closing basis.
– A breakdown below 1
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