**Weekly Forex Forecast: DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURAUD, and XAUUSD (July 21-25, 2025)**
*By Justin Bennett, Daily Price Action*
This week, markets face another pivotal set of moves with the US Dollar Index (DXY) grappling with key resistance, major crosses like EURUSD and GBPUSD showing directional volatility, and commodities such as gold at a technical crossroad. Price action signals, coupled with economic drivers and market sentiment, suggest high-impact trading opportunities for July 21 to 25.
Below is a comprehensive breakdown of the major forex pairs and gold, prepared for price action traders and investors looking to navigate this dynamic trading environment.
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### DXY (US Dollar Index): Key Resistance and Possible Retracement
The US Dollar Index has maintained a bullish tilt since late Q2, propped up by hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve officials and relatively robust US economic prints. Last week, DXY rallied into a clear horizontal resistance zone around 104.60–104.80. Sellers have previously defended this area vigorously.
**Technical Insights:**
– The 104.60–104.80 region acts as both a horizontal resistance and a confluence area for sellers.
– A bearish engulfing candle formed on the daily chart, suggesting potential exhaustion of recent bullish momentum.
– The rising trend line support, originating from the early June lows near 103.00, remains unbroken.
**Outlook and Scenarios:**
– A daily close below 104.60 could signal a deeper retracement, with 104.00 and 103.60 as near-term supports.
– Conversely, a clear daily close above 104.80 would expose 105.30 and the May swing high.
**Key Levels to Watch:**
– Resistance: 104.60–104.80, 105.30
– Support: 104.00, 103.60
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### EURUSD: Testing a Critical Pivot Range
EURUSD continues to display significant sensitivity around the 1.0800 handle. Last week’s price action saw repeated tests of this area, with bulls and bears locked in a tug-of-war. The pair’s inability to establish a decisive daily close above 1.0850 signals that buyers may lack conviction in the short term.
**Technical Insights:**
– Sellers have capped rallies at 1.0850, marking this as immediate overhead resistance.
– The horizontal support at 1.0750–1.0780 stands as a major level; a breakdown here could trigger accelerated selling to 1.0700 and 1.0660.
– The daily 10 and 20-period moving averages are flat, affirming the range-bound condition.
**Outlook and Scenarios:**
– Range traders will focus on fading moves between 1.0750 and 1.0850 unless the pair breaks out.
– A sustained daily close above 1.0850 opens the way for a push to 1.0900 and possibly 1.0960.
– A drop below 1.0750 could confirm a topping structure from early July.
**Key Levels to Watch:**
– Resistance: 1.0850, 1.0900, 1.0960
– Support: 1.0750, 1.0700, 1.0660
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### GBPUSD: Stuck in a Consolidative Phase
Cable lost upward momentum after sharp rallies in June, now stuck in a consolidation between 1.2750 and the psychological barrier at 1.3000. Last week, price action printed a series of doji and spinning top candlesticks, indicative of market indecision.
**Technical Insights:**
– The 1.2750–1.2780 band serves as a floor for short-term dips.
– Resistance lies at 1.2950, a key swing high from
Read more on GBP/USD trading.