**Weekly Forex Analysis: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and More**
*Based on the analysis by Dhwani Mehta, FXStreet, enhanced with insights from additional forex market sources.*
The forex market closed another eventful week, shaped by dynamic geopolitical events, evolving monetary policy rhetoric, and fresh sets of macroeconomic data. Ahead lies another week bustling with critical economic releases and central bank decisions that are expected to inject further volatility into the major currency pairs. Below is a comprehensive breakdown and forecast for the most closely-watched pairs, with additional context from up-to-date industry commentary and previous price behaviors.
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### **Key Themes Shaping Forex Markets This Week**
– **Federal Reserve Policy Outlook**: Recent US economic data and ongoing Federal Reserve commentary continue to drive speculation about the timing and magnitude of future rate cuts.
– **European Central Bank (ECB) Direction**: Changing inflation trends and mixed euro area data keep investors guessing about the ECB’s next moves.
– **Bank of England View**: The UK’s inflation and jobs data are putting pressure on policymakers, with implications for sterling movements.
– **Commodity Currencies and Risk Appetite**: The Australian and Canadian dollars are swinging with changes in global risk appetite and commodity price developments.
– **Geopolitical Risk**: Ongoing conflicts and political uncertainty in the US and abroad are amplifying market moves.
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### **EUR/USD Outlook**
The EUR/USD pair remains the centerpiece of the global currency market, reflecting both the health of the US dollar and that of the eurozone economy.
#### **Recent Developments**
– The pair struggled to sustain momentum above significant resistance near 1.0850, encountering headwinds as US inflation metrics surprised to the upside and the Federal Reserve signaled a more cautious approach to rate cuts.
– ECB policymakers indicated a data-dependent approach, with some members hinting at another hold if inflation pressures persist.
#### **Technical Picture**
– **Resistance Levels**: 1.0860, followed by 1.0920. These marks coincide with the 200-day simple moving average and recent swing highs.
– **Support Levels**: 1.0700, followed by 1.0620, which aligns with the 100-day moving average and previous pivot lows.
#### **Fundamental Drivers**
– Ongoing divergence in macro data between the US and eurozone continues to favor the dollar, but any signs of a eurozone recovery could help the pair stage a corrective rally.
– Eyes will be on upcoming figures such as the German ZEW Economic Sentiment and final inflation readings from across the euro area.
#### **Forecast**
While the structural bias remains bearish below 1.0850, a breakthrough above that level could target the 1.0920 region. Conversely, a failure to hold above 1.0700 opens the door for further declines toward 1.0620.
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### **GBP/USD Analysis**
The British pound has held broadly steady against the US dollar,
Read more on AUD/USD trading.