**US30, GBP/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, USD/JPY, and Gold: Weekly Forex Forecast**
*Based on the analysis by Haresh Menghani, FXStreet (July 21, 2024)*
The foreign exchange and commodity markets are entering the final weeks of July with heightened volatility and uncertainty. The week ahead is set to be dominated by major central bank meetings, critical data releases from the US and Europe, and ongoing geopolitical developments. This comprehensive outlook explores the prospects for US30 (Dow Jones), GBP/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, USD/JPY, and Gold, offering traders a detailed forecast to navigate a pivotal summer trading week.
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### US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average)
The US30 index has experienced erratic swings amid mixed signals from recent inflation data and earnings reports. After reaching record highs earlier in July, the index is now grappling with the implications of a prolonged high-interest-rate environment and patchy sectoral performance.
**Key Drivers:**
– **Q2 Earnings Season:** Industrial, technology, and banking results will dictate sentiment. Strong reports from major tech stocks could provide tailwinds, but disappointing results from cyclical sectors may trigger corrective moves.
– **Federal Reserve Meeting:** The FOMC is expected to maintain its policy rate, but any dovish shift in forward guidance could reignite risk appetite.
– **Economic Data:** Core PCE inflation, GDP growth figures, and durable goods orders will be closely parsed for recessionary or inflationary pressures.
**Technical Overview:**
– Support remains at 39,800 and 39,400 levels. Breaking these could see a deeper correction toward 38,900.
– Resistance is seen near the 40,500 area, with further upside possible if this is breached.
– The short-term moving averages (20 and 50-day) are flattening, indicating a potential consolidation ahead.
**US30 Trading Strategy:**
– **Bullish bias** if the index holds above 39,800 and earnings or Fed commentary prove supportive.
– **Neutral or cautious** if the index drifts below 39,400.
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### GBP/USD
Cable concluded last week on a defensive note after failing to secure sustained gains above the crucial 1.2900 handle. Dollar strength, shifting BoE rate expectations, and lackluster UK economic data are shaping near-term prospects.
**Fundamental Factors:**
– **Bank of England Policy Uncertainty:** The market is pricing in more cautious BoE rate cuts into the autumn, with little clarity on timing.
– **US Data Dependence:** The pair’s direction remains closely tied to US growth and inflation statistics, as well as risk sentiment.
– **UK Macro Releases:** GDP revisions, labor market updates, and the latest PMI releases will offer insight into economic resilience.
**Technical Chart Signals:**
– The pair held critical support at 1.2750, but repeated failures to clear 1.2900-1.2950 raise concerns about long-term upside.
– A break below 1.2750 would expose the 1.2660 and 1.2590 support zones.
– Momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) are turning lower, suggesting consolidation or a shallow retracement.
**GBP/USD Trading Tactics:**
– **Bearish short-term** bias below 1.2900, with a possible drop toward 1.2660 on weak UK data or strong US numbers.
– **Bullish reversal** potential should the pair sustain above 1.2950 on improved UK or global risk sentiment.
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### EUR/USD
The euro sank to multi-week lows near 1.0800 amid ongoing signs of European economic stagnation and persistent US dollar strength. The weeks ahead offer few clear upward catalysts, and risks appear skewed to the downside.
**Market Influences:**
– **ECB Meeting:** Markets expect the European Central Bank to signal a long pause before
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