Title: Weekly Technical Outlook: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Gold, Oil, and SPX500 (July 21, 2025)
By: Matt Weller, FOREX.com
Source: https://www.forex.com/ie/news-and-analysis/eur-usd-gbp-usd-usd-jpy-gold-oil-spx500-weekly-technical-outlook-7-21-2025/
The forex and broader financial markets enter the new trading week with heightened anticipation. Traders remain focused on key macroeconomic indicators, rising geopolitical tensions, volatility in commodities, and currency crossovers. The trading outlook for major asset classes including EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, gold, oil, and the SPX500 continues to evolve. This weekly technical analysis by Matt Weller at FOREX.com provides a comprehensive view of what to watch in the coming sessions as we move through the final stretch of July.
EUR/USD: Sentiment Favors Dollar Strength Amid Signs of Weak Eurozone Growth
The euro-dollar pair saw increased selling pressure last week, with bulls struggling to defend key support levels. Weak consumer confidence in the Eurozone and a more resilient U.S. economy favor the dollar, causing EUR/USD to slip toward the 1.0800 figure.
Key technical highlights:
– Following a rebound to above 1.0900 last month, bears have steadily regained control. The euro has now retraced much of its June rally, turning market attention to the 1.0800-1.0780 support zone.
– A break below this region could pave the way for a deeper pullback toward the May low near 1.0650.
– On the upside, immediate resistance lies at 1.0900, followed by 1.0940. Sustained move above this region would challenge the longer-term bearish bias.
Fundamental drivers:
– Soft manufacturing data from Germany and France has revived concerns over a stalling Eurozone recovery.
– The U.S. dollar outlook remains sturdy, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve could hold steady on interest rates or even consider future rate hikes.
– Fed speakers continue emphasizing data-dependency, but core inflation readings in the U.S. remain elevated.
– Unless inflation trends diverge significantly between the EU and U.S., the path of least resistance favors USD strength.
Outlook for the week: Mildly bearish, with potential move toward 1.0750 unless buyers mount a recovery above 1.0900.
GBP/USD: Sterling Dips as Market Evaluates BoE Policy Outlook
The pound-dollar pair came under pressure over the past week, slipping from highs above 1.3100 to test 1.2900. Hawkish signals from the Bank of England failed to provide lasting support for the British currency, as stronger U.S. data lifted Treasury yields.
Technical landscape:
– GBP/USD remains within a broad sideways consolidation, trapped between 1.2800 and 1.3150.
– Immediate support lies at 1.2890, the recent intraday low. A breach lower exposes 1.2750.
– Resistance remains at 1.3000, a psychological barrier, followed by 1.3140, last month’s peak.
Macro backdrop:
– The UK economy has shown resilience, but wage growth and sticky inflation could prompt the BoE to remain in tightening mode longer than anticipated.
– Mixed employment data and dovish BoE statements have softened rate hike expectations, limiting pound upside.
– Across the Atlantic, continued dollar strength has squeezed cable further.
Weekly bias: Neutral to bearish, unless economic surprises bolster UK growth or BoE shifts tone significantly.
USD/JPY: Dollar Yen Rally Pushes Closer to 160 Handle
The USD/JPY pair continues to firm, approaching the psychologically critical 160.00 level. Despite speculation over currency intervention by
Read more on EUR/USD trading.