**EUR/USD Forecast Update – July 24, 2025**
*Originally reported by Economies.com*
The EUR/USD currency pair continued its bearish movement for the day, confirming a further decline beneath the 1.1100 support level. This downtrend reflects ongoing pressure that aligns with the broader negative outlook for the pair. The recent technical indicators and macroeconomic developments suggest a continuation of this movement, with the next major support target located around the 1.1005 price level.
This article elaborates on the current status of the EUR/USD pair, analyzes contributing market factors, and offers an extended forecast rooted in both fundamental and technical analysis.
## Current Price Action and Technical Overview
– The EUR/USD price maintained a downward trajectory throughout the early trading hours on July 24, 2025.
– Decline was solidified after the loss of support at 1.1100, a key level that had held consistently during previous sessions.
– This descent confirms bearish strength and marks the continuation of the short-term negative momentum.
– Bearish signals from various technical indicators, including moving averages and momentum oscillators, reinforce the prevailing downside bias.
### Key Technical Levels:
– **Support Levels:**
– Immediate support: 1.1050
– Primary target: 1.1005
– Potential deeper retracement: 1.0950, if bearish sentiment intensifies
– **Resistance Levels:**
– Minor recovery resistance: 1.1115
– Recovery confirmation: 1.1160
– Break of 1.1185 would challenge the bearish forecast
– **Indicators:**
– RSI (Relative Strength Index) shows neutral to slightly negative momentum, trending near oversold levels, signaling continuation with possible brief pauses.
– MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) below the signal line, supporting lower short-term expectations.
– 50-day SMA has turned downward and crossed below the 100-day SMA, further validating bearish projection.
## Fundamental Factors Driving EUR/USD Weakness
Several macroeconomic and geopolitical factors have contributed to the current weakness in the EUR/USD pair:
### 1. European Central Bank (ECB) Policy Dovishness
– The ECB has recently reiterated a more cautious tone on future interest rate hikes, citing persistent uncertainty in the eurozone economic recovery.
– Inflation data, although moderately easing, remains above target, limiting ECB flexibility.
– Lack of significant signals toward monetary tightening weakens euro demand relative to the US dollar.
### 2. Divergent Federal Reserve Stance
– The US Federal Reserve, on the other hand, has maintained a hawkish tone, suggesting that additional tightening is possible should inflation pressures remain.
– Recent economic data from the US shows robustness in labor markets and consumer spending, lending credibility to the Fed’s stance.
– This policy divergence continues to favor the dollar over the euro, adding to downward EUR/USD pressure.
### 3. Economic Data Disparities
– US economic indicators remain notably stronger compared to those from the eurozone:
– US Q2 GDP growth exceeded expectations at 2.4% annualized.
– Eurozone growth stagnated at 0.1% amid weak industrial output and soft retail sales.
– Inflation metrics:
– US CPI came in at 3.1% year-over-year, still above the Fed’s target but showing progress.
– Eurozone’s core CPI stagnated near 4.0%, but with clear signs of slowing economic momentum.
### 4. Political and Geopolitical Developments
– Ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe persist, indirectly dampening investor sentiment on the euro.
– Political uncertainty within the eurozone, especially debates over fiscal spending in Germany and upcoming parliamentary elections in France, contribute to investor hesitancy.
## Short-Term Forecast for EUR/USD
Based on prevailing market conditions and technical indicators, the EUR/USD looks poised to continue its decline over the
Read more on EUR/USD trading.