**Weekly Forex Forecast for DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, and XAUUSD (July 28 – August 1, 2025)**
*Original Analysis by Justin Bennett, adapted for educational purposes.*
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As July comes to a close and we look ahead to the first trading days of August 2025, major USD pairs and gold brace for a potentially volatile week. On the heels of key economic releases, market sentiment is split as traders seek direction in the wake of shifting central bank narratives and a complex global risk environment. Below, we analyze the weekly chart structures and critical levels for the US Dollar Index (DXY), EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, and XAUUSD.
## U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): Consolidation Persists Near Yearly Highs
The DXY finished the previous week consolidating near a pivotal resistance area, as traders digested mixed U.S. macroeconomic data and looked for further policy cues from the Federal Reserve.
**Technical Overview:**
– **Key Resistance:** The 106.40-106.60 area remains the critical resistance zone. This region has limited upside momentum since early June.
– **Key Support:** The 104.90-105.00 range emerges as near-term support. A breakdown here could attract sellers toward 104.20, which is the base of the multi-month bullish channel.
– **Momentum Indicators:** RSI hovers just below overbought territory on the daily time frame, showing bullish strength but flashing potential for a reversal if key supports break.
**Fundamental Drivers:**
– Mixed data from the U.S. labor and housing markets confounded dollar bulls.
– June FOMC minutes highlight a cautious but hawkish Fed, with rates expected to remain elevated into the fall.
**Trade Implications:**
– Sustained closes above 106.60 set up a potential run at 107.80.
– However, repeated failures at resistance, especially accompanied by cooling economic prints, heighten the risk of a correction into August.
## EURUSD: Bears Defend Crucial Resistance
EURUSD has repeatedly failed to reclaim the upper end of its recent range, with sellers defending resistance above 1.0930. Eurozone data has yet to impress, and diverging ECB-Fed outlooks keep upside capped.
**Technical Snapshot:**
– **Resistance:** 1.0930-1.0950. Numerous rejections at this zone since the late June rally.
– **Support:** The pivotal 1.0800 handle aligns with trendline support from the spring lows.
– **Weekly Structure:** The pair carved a bearish engulfing candle last week, suggesting that sellers remain in the driver’s seat unless we see a daily close above resistance.
**Fundamental Context:**
– Recent ECB statements point to a protracted pause, contrasting with U.S. policy, which remains decisively on hold with a tightening bias.
– Eurozone inflation is decelerating further, casting doubts on the prospects of a near-term ECB hike.
**Trade Implications:**
– Breaks below 1.0800 highlight the next downside level at 1.0730.
– Only a daily or weekly close above 1.0950 flip the outlook and open up 1.1045.
### EURUSD Levels to Watch:
– Resistance: 1.0930, 1.0950, 1.1045
– Support: 1.0800, 1.0730, 1.0665
## GBPUSD: Uptrend in Jeopardy Ahead of BoE
Cable started the year strong but recent weeks have seen momentum wane as the pair consolidates under long-term trend resistance. All eyes turn to the Bank of England policy meeting for the week ahead.
**Technical Analysis:**
– **Primary Resistance:** 1.2980 marks the triple top from June and July. This is also confluent
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