**EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook: June 13, 2024**
*Adapted and expanded from ActionForex.com, originally authored by ActionForex Team.*
The EUR/USD currency pair has exhibited a notable shift in its momentum following the recent U.S. economic data release and the FOMC policy announcement. Traders are now analyzing whether the change signals a confirmed bearish reversal or just a temporary pullback in the broader uptrend. In this extended analysis, we take a detailed look at the EUR/USD pair for the mid-day session of June 13, 2024, providing insights into price movements, technical indicators, and potential future scenarios for traders and investors alike.
## EUR/USD Overview
– **Current Price Action**: The EUR/USD pair has extended its pullback from the recent high of 1.0915. At the time of writing, the currency is trading around the 1.0750 level, reflecting increased bearish sentiment after the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision.
– **Short-Term Momentum**: Downward momentum is gradually building. Technical indicators suggest that sellers have gained near-term control, with moving averages beginning to curve lower and bearish candlestick formations forming since the start of the European session.
– **Medium-Term Trend**: Despite the short-term bearish action, the medium-term trend remains intact. The broader upward move from the March low of 1.0600 continues to act as a background framework, although its strength is now being tested.
## Key Technical Levels
The EUR/USD chart presents several key technical levels that have been influential in shaping current price behavior.
### Support Levels
– **1.0700**: Minor psychological support observed during Asian session consolidation.
– **1.0665**: Corresponds to a previous swing low and near the 55-day exponential moving average (EMA). If price breaks through this level, strong selling may ensue.
– **1.0600 Zone**: Critical structural support and the March swing low. A breach here could invalidate the broader bullish forecast and set the stage for a deeper decline.
### Resistance Levels
– **1.0780**: Short-term resistance and previously held support level. Bulls need to reclaim this to stall further downside momentum.
– **1.0850**: Mid-level resistance aligned with the 20-day SMA. It marked a consolidation area during the prior bullish phase.
– **1.0915**: The post-ECB spike high from early June. Price must exceed this for bullish continuation.
## Technical Analysis and Indicators
### Trend Analysis
– **Immediate Trend**: Bearish, as the pair maintains a pattern of lower highs and lower lows below the 20-period SMA on the 4-hour chart.
– **Daily Chart**: The EUR/USD has broken out of a rising channel pattern, shifting the outlook to neutral. If the pair fails to hold above the 1.0665 support, it may enter a short-term bearish trend.
### Moving Averages
– **20-Day SMA**: Now acting as a dynamic resistance near 1.0780.
– **55-Day EMA**: Located around 1.0660, currently offering support and serving as a trend confirmation point.
– **200-Day SMA**: Flat near 1.0800. No decisive trend change indicated yet.
### RSI (Relative Strength Index)
– RSI on the daily chart remains neutral but points downward. It hovers around 45, suggesting fading bullish momentum while not yet being in oversold territory.
– On the 4-hour chart, RSI is under 40, pointing to short-term oversold conditions.
### MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
– The MACD line has crossed below the signal line on both the daily and 4-hour chart, reinforcing bearish momentum.
– Histogram bars are red and increasing in size, which typically indicates that sellers hold the upper hand in the immediate term.
## FOMC and Fundamental Developments
Read more on EUR/USD trading.