**AUD/USD Weekly Outlook: Trend Analysis and Forecast**
*Adapted and Expanded from ActionForex.com Technical Outlook*
—
### Overview
The Australian Dollar (AUD) to United States Dollar (USD) currency pair, abbreviated as AUD/USD, remains closely watched in the forex markets due to its sensitivity to global risk sentiment, commodity prices, and divergent central bank policies. The pair has recently experienced waves of volatility, shaped by evolving economic data from both Australia and the US, changing expectations regarding interest rates, and external factors such as trade dynamics with China. This detailed report offers an in-depth technical and fundamental outlook for AUD/USD, with projections for the near and medium term, referencing the original analysis by ActionForex.com and enriching the perspectives with additional expert sources.
—
### Recent Price Action
– **Last Week’s Summary**:
During the previous trading week, AUD/USD experienced consolidation, remaining within the short-term trading range. Despite intraday attempts to break out, the pair managed to hold above its recent support levels, signaling ongoing indecision among market participants about the next directional move.
– **Key Weekly Highs and Lows**:
The pair tested both support and resistance areas repeatedly, but neither buyers nor sellers could secure dominance. Price action was confined between crucial technical levels, reflecting the uncertain macroeconomic backdrop and the re-pricing of US rate expectations.
—
### Technical Analysis
#### **Daily and Weekly Chart Analysis**
– **Trend Direction**:
The broader AUD/USD trend remains bearish, as the pair trades below long-term moving averages and respects the series of lower highs and lower lows on weekly charts.
– **Moving Averages**:
– The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) continues to act as dynamic resistance.
– The 55-day EMA provides a further obstacle above current levels.
– The 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is significantly above market price, signaling a weak medium-term momentum.
– **Support and Resistance**:
– **Immediate Support**: 0.6580 region, which capped downside moves during the week.
– **Next Major Support**: 0.6460 area, aligning with the year-to-date lows.
– **Initial Resistance**: 0.6700 zone, coinciding with a cluster of previous swing highs.
– **Key Resistance**: 0.6780 level, matching both a technical barrier and psychological mark.
– **Momentum Indicators**:
– The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50-neutral level on both daily and weekly timeframes, pointing to ongoing selling pressure.
– MACD histogram is negative with a flattening signal line, indicating loss of bearish momentum but no confirmation of reversal.
#### **Pattern Recognition**
– **Formation**:
AUD/USD has been shaping a descending triangle formation on the daily chart, with a flat base around 0.6580 and a sequence
Read more on AUD/USD trading.