**AUD/USD Technical and Fundamental Weekly Analysis**
*Based on analysis originally by ActionForex.com, with additional supporting information from FXStreet and DailyFX.*
—
**Overview**
The Australian dollar (AUD) experienced a volatile week against the US dollar (USD), facing downward pressure and testing key support levels. Market sentiment was influenced by macroeconomic data releases from both Australia and the US, including employment data, inflation readings, and central bank commentary. This comprehensive report analyzes recent price action, evaluates technical indicators, details major fundamental drivers, and outlines significant support and resistance levels for traders and investors.
—
**Price Action Review**
– The AUD/USD pair commenced the week under bearish momentum, accelerating its losses and breaching the 0.6550 support area.
– Throughout the week, the pair made several attempts to recover, but encountered selling pressure near previous support-turned-resistance at 0.6600.
– By Friday, the pair was trading close to the 0.6530 region, reflecting continued uncertainty in both the Australian and US macroeconomic landscapes.
– The overall trend since April 2024 has been corrective after a rally earlier in the year, indicating consolidation within a longer-term range.
—
**Technical Analysis**
*Weekly Chart Dynamics*
– The pair has formed a sequence of lower highs and lower lows since topping around 0.6700 in early June 2024.
– Current price action hovers around the 55-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting a pivotal moment for directional momentum.
– RSI on the weekly chart remains neutral, near the 50-level, implying indecision among traders about the next major move.
– MACD histogram is flattening, another signal that buyers and sellers are reaching equilibrium.
*Key Technical Levels*
– Immediate support: 0.6500 psychological level.
– Further support: 0.6450 and 0.6386 region, which marks the bottom from April 2024.
– Resistance: 0.6600, followed by 0.6670 and then the yearly high at 0.6713.
– A sustained move above 0.6670 would indicate bullish continuation, whereas a close below 0.6450 could see the pair retesting 0.6386 or lower.
*Technical Outlook Summary*
– Short-term trend: Neutral to bearish
– Medium-term trend: Sideways within broad 0.6386 to 0.6713 range
– Volatility: Elevated due to upcoming economic data and global risk sentiment
—
**Fundamental Factors Impacting AUD/USD**
*Australian Domestic Factors*
– **RBA Monetary Policy**
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates on hold during its latest policy meeting, signaling a cautious approach amid mixed signals regarding inflation and wage growth. Market expectations are divided on future rate adjustments, with most analysts projecting a prolonged period of elevated rates to curb inflationary pressures.
– **Australian Labor Market**
Recent
Read more on AUD/USD trading.