**AUD/USD Weekly Technical Analysis and Outlook (Credit: ActionForex.com)**
The Australian Dollar and US Dollar (AUD/USD) currency pair remains a closely watched pair by forex traders due to its liquidity, volatility, and insight into global risk sentiment. As of the week ending June 8, 2024, traders were focused on key developments regarding the trajectory of the pair, with attention on technical indicators, fundamental drivers, and macroeconomic data releases.
This analysis is based on the weekly report by ActionForex.com with additional insights for comprehensive coverage.
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### Overview: AUD/USD in Recent Weeks
– The AUD/USD pair has continued to trade in a well-defined technical range.
– The market has shown resilience in holding above key intermediate support levels, while struggling to break through significant resistance on rallies.
– Overall direction has been moderately bearish, given the backdrop of a strong US Dollar and uncertainties about Australia’s economic prospects.
– Persistent issues such as divergent monetary policies between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), and changing risk appetites, influence the pair.
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### Weekly Chart Analysis: Key Technical Levels
**1. Price Action and Support/Resistance**
– After a failed bullish attempt in mid-May, the AUD/USD encountered strong resistance near the 0.6713 level.
– The pair retreated below the 0.6650 area, closing last week at approximately 0.6600.
– The downside remains guarded by a key support at around 0.6478, which had previously served as a swing low in April.
– The longer-term picture is neutral-to-bearish until a definitive break occurs either above resistance or below support.
**2. Moving Averages and Momentum**
– The 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) converge near 0.6620, acting as resistance.
– The pair is oscillating close to these averages but has not established a sustained move above the 50-week SMA since early March.
– Momentum indicators:
– Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding in the mid-50s, suggesting a lack of strong directional momentum.
– The MACD histogram is flat, indicating lack of conviction among bulls and bears.
– These technical indicators reinforce the consolidation narrative.
**3. Medium-term Trendline**
– A falling trendline, drawn from the February 2023 high through lower swing highs, caps the upside potential in the medium term.
– A sustained close above this trendline would signal a potential reversal, but for now, bears retain control beneath it.
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### Daily Chart: Short-term Technical Outlook
– The pair maintains a series of higher lows from April through late May, but is capped by a flat-topped resistance at 0.6713.
– A short-term ascending channel is under threat; a decisive break below the channel support at 0.6550 could target the next support cluster at 0
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