**AUD/USD Forex Analysis and Signal – 29 July 2025**
Based on the original analysis by the team at DailyForex.com.
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The AUD/USD currency pair is subject to a wide mix of market influences, from macroeconomic trends to central bank decisions, risk sentiment, and technical trading dynamics. As of late July 2025, the Australian dollar (AUD) and the US dollar (USD) continue to react to evolving expectations around monetary policy, commodity trends, inflation data, and global growth uncertainties.
This article will deliver an in-depth look at the current state of the AUD/USD pair, provide actionable technical signals, review recent fundamental influences, and examine both short-term and longer-term forecasts. The content is based in part on an analysis from DailyForex.com, with additional context and insights included.
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## Market Context
### Recent Developments
– Throughout 2025, global markets have seen volatility, notably in major currency pairs like AUD/USD.
– The Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remain key market drivers with their monetary policy updates and forward guidance.
– Commodity prices, especially the value of iron ore, coal, and energy exports (key export sectors for Australia), impact the AUD’s performance.
– Diverging inflation pressures and economic growth rates between Australia and the United States continue to shape trading sentiment.
### Central Bank Policies
– The US Federal Reserve has maintained a cautious approach, keeping rates steady after a series of hikes in 2023 and 2024, citing persistent inflationary pressures and mixed economic data.
– The Reserve Bank of Australia, meanwhile, has maneuvered carefully, attempting to balance the need to support domestic growth while keeping inflation expectations in check.
– As of late July, neither central bank has made unexpected moves, but hints from policymakers remain a focal point for currency traders.
### Economic Data
– Recent data releases from Australia include subdued wage growth and slightly higher unemployment.
– In the United States, GDP growth has exceeded forecasts, but consumer confidence remains fragile.
– Inflation data from both countries continue to drive expectations for future interest rate decisions.
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## Technical Analysis of AUD/USD
### Recent Price Action
– The AUD/USD pair has been range-bound, with resistance emerging near the 0.6850 to 0.6880 levels and support around the 0.6730 to 0.6700 area.
– Short-term bullish momentum has weakened, and the market has entered a consolidation phase reflecting both macro uncertainty and summer trading volumes.
– The pair traded at approximately 0.6780 going into the final trading week of July 2025.
### Chart Patterns and Key Indicators
– **Moving Averages:** The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) sits just above the current price, while the 200-day SMA is below, reflecting underlying trend stability with a slightly bullish edge if the price can sustain gains above the shorter-term average.
– **Relative Strength Index (RSI):** Currently
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