**AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Bears Tighten Grip Below Key Moving Averages**
*Adapted from InvestingLive.com, original author Gaurav Kashyap. Supplemented by insights from FXStreet and DailyFX.*
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The Australian dollar has found itself skidding against its U.S. counterpart recently, with sellers cementing control as the AUD/USD continues to trade below significant moving averages. The pair’s inability to sustain momentum above several key technical levels indicates growing bearish sentiment, fueled by a combination of domestic economic concerns in Australia and the persistent strength of the U.S. dollar.
This in-depth technical analysis will explore the daily price action, major chart patterns, and important support and resistance levels guiding the AUD/USD currency pair. We’ll also discuss the macroeconomic backdrop shaping this setup and provide a rundown of potential scenarios for traders to consider in the near to medium term.
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**Price Action Overview and Trend Analysis**
– AUD/USD has been in a steady decline, recently sliding back toward multi-week lows.
– The pair has failed to climb above both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), underlining persistent bearish momentum.
– Sellers have been emboldened by a strengthening U.S. dollar, with robust U.S. jobs data and hawkish Federal Reserve commentary adding weight to the greenback.
– In contrast, the Reserve Bank of Australia has struck a more dovish tone, with weaker-than-expected Australian macroeconomic data adding downward pressure to the Aussie.
**Technical Chart Patterns and Key Levels**
– **Moving Averages:**
– The 50-day SMA is trending above the current spot price. Historically, repeated failures to reclaim this moving average often confirm the dominance of sellers.
– The 200-day SMA, an even more significant long-term indicator, looms overhead. The inability of AUD/USD to break above this level despite multiple attempts adds to the bearish outlook.
– **Support and Resistance:**
– **Immediate resistance:** Near 0.6650, aligned with the 50-day SMA and a minor horizontal barrier marked by recent swing highs.
– **Second resistance:** Around 0.6770-0.6800, intersecting with the 200-day SMA and prior peaks from earlier this year.
– **Immediate support:** The 0.6550 zone, where several recent intraday lows cluster. Violation of this level could spark an accelerated move lower.
– **Deeper support:** 0.6450-0.6470, marking a key base that has previously triggered bullish reversals.
– **Trend Channel:**
– AUD/USD has formed a descending trend channel on the daily chart, connecting a series of lower highs and lower lows. Price action remains contained within this bearish structure.
**Momentum and Oscillator Indicators**
– The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits just above the oversold threshold, suggesting that while sellers are dominant, room remains for further downside before any significant
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