Title: EUR/USD Forecast and Analysis Update – July 30, 2025
Source: Forecast Update for EUR/USD – 30-07-2025 by Economies.com
Author: Economies.com Analysts
The EUR/USD currency pair continues to trade within a defined technical framework as we approach the monthly close of July 2025. The pair is showing mild fluctuations following global economic developments, central bank commentary, and technical constraints. The analysis by Economies.com, updated on July 30, 2025, offers valuable insights into the EUR/USD market dynamics, current technical indicators, and potential scenarios in the short term. This article expands on that update to provide a detailed, multi-angle outlook for traders, investors, and forex market followers.
Overview of Current Price Action
– The EUR/USD pair preserved its stability near the 1.0930 level during early European trading hours on July 30.
– After a mild pullback, the pair regained traction above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting the potential for continued upside momentum.
– The dollar index remains moderately soft, contributing to euro strength.
– However, further upside movement appears constrained by overhead resistance zones, while buyers maintain cautious optimism.
Key Technical Insights
– The price action is supported by the bullish trend line that began forming around the mid-term bottom at 1.0820.
– The 1.0930 zone continues to hold as an immediate support level, preventing more aggressive bearish correction.
– The pair remains supported on dips toward the 50-day EMA, currently trading near the 1.0915 level.
– Oscillators such as RSI (Relative Strength Index) show neutral to mildly bullish momentum, currently hovering near 55, indicating buyers have a slight edge.
Resistance and Support Levels
According to the latest chart patterns and Fibonacci retracement markers, traders should observe the following levels carefully:
Support Levels:
– 1.0930: A critical intraday support that has held throughout the last two sessions.
– 1.0895 – 1.0900: Moderate support and EMA-50 level, keeping the bullish bias intact.
– 1.0860: Lower channel support trend line. A break here could change the near-term outlook.
– 1.0820: Last recorded lower price point and longer-term support level.
Resistance Levels:
– 1.0975 – 1.0980: This region serves as the immediate resistance and must be cleared for any bullish continuation.
– 1.1020: The June high and a decisive resistance that serves as a potential breakout point.
– 1.1070: A medium-term resistance, which if breached, may signal a longer-term bullish reversal.
– 1.1100: A psychological resistance zone and potential double-top formation from late April.
Current Momentum Drivers in EUR/USD
Several factors are influencing the price action of the EUR/USD pair. These include macroeconomic data, investor sentiment, monetary policy outlooks, and geopolitical developments. Below are the primary drivers as analyzed by the Economies.com team and expanded upon here.
1. Economic Data from the Eurozone and US:
– Germany’s inflation data showed a slight uptick in the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI), supporting the euro.
– The latest European Central Bank (ECB) economic bulletin suggests that inflation pressures may persist into Q4 2025.
– U.S. data remain mixed, with recent Durable Goods Orders beating forecasts, while Q2 GDP came in slightly below expectations at 1.6% vs. 1.8% forecast.
– U.S. labor market indicators remain resilient, which limits the downside pressure on the dollar despite dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve.
2. ECB and Fed Policy Expectations:
– The ECB is expected to maintain current interest rates, although some policymakers hint toward potential hikes should inflation remain sticky.
– Traders are pricing in a probability of a
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