Title: In-Depth Technical Outlook on EUR/USD: Wave Analysis for July 30, 2025
Original Author: Carlos Reyes, MENAFN
The euro-dollar pair (EUR/USD) has experienced significant fluctuations in recent months, offering an intriguing landscape for wave analysis as of July 30, 2025. As traders continue to adapt to shifting macroeconomic trends, wave-based technical analysis remains a vital tool for forecasting future price action in the currency markets.
This article, reinterpreting the original forecast provided by Carlos Reyes for MENAFN, explores EUR/USD through the lens of Elliott Wave Theory, Fibonacci retracements, trendlines, and support-resistance zones. The focus is on providing traders with a comprehensive view of where the euro stands, potential price action scenarios, and optimal trading strategies for short-to-medium timeframes.
1. Market Context as of July 30, 2025
Before diving into wave counts and directional outlooks, it is essential to consider the broader context. The EUR/USD pair in July 2025 is influenced by multiple macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, including:
– Diverging monetary policies between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the U.S. Federal Reserve
– Persistent inflationary pressures within the eurozone
– U.S. employment data and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate hike guidance
– Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in Eastern Europe and its impact on energy markets
These factors play a pivotal role in shaping investor sentiment and directly affect price movements in the EUR/USD pair.
2. Weekly and Daily Chart Structure: Unfolding a Corrective Pattern
A multi-timeframe analysis provides valuable insights into the medium-to-long term trajectory of the currency pair. The current structure observed on the higher timeframes indicates a potential continuation of a corrective wave cycle.
On the weekly and daily charts:
– The pair appears to be unfolding a large corrective structure consistent with the classic Elliott Wave pattern
– This is suggestive of a larger A-B-C correction rather than a new impulsive bullish trend
– Wave A appears to have completed in early March 2025
– Wave B is currently forming a structure that might be corrective in nature, possibly a zigzag or a flat
Intermediate analysis shows that the recent price movement from the March low to the July high is typical of a counter-trend rally within a corrective sequence.
3. Elliott Wave Analysis: Breakdown of Internal Structure
A central theme of Carlos Reyes’ analysis involves Elliott Wave Theory, which divides price movements into impulse and correction phases. Applying this framework, the EUR/USD pair exhibits several important patterns:
– Primary wave A extended sharply downward from January to March 2025, consistent with risk-off sentiment post-EU GDP release
– Wave B, currently unfolding, retraced approximately 50 percent of wave A’s decline, indicating a classic corrective retracement
– The internal sub-waves of wave B resemble a potential double zigzag pattern: W-X-Y
– Wave W was the initial rally toward the 1.0950 resistance
– Wave X was the retracement to around 1.0810
– Wave Y currently appears to be stalling below key overhead resistance near 1.1010
– Current price action forms bearish divergence on the RSI, which may suggest exhaustion of the wave B correction
This wave count suggests an impending wave C to the downside, with potential to revisit or break below the previous March low.
4. Fibonacci Levels and Key Confluence Zones
Accurate retracement levels play a supporting role in confirming potential wave terminations. In this case:
– Wave B has halted near the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement zone of wave A’s decline, around the 1.0980–1.1000 area
– This also aligns with:
– A downward sloping trendline connecting prior swing highs from December 2024
– Horizontal resistance zone established in July 2024
– A con
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