**GBP/USD Weekly Outlook: Technical Analysis and Fundamental Insights**
*Based on content originally published by ActionForex.com; full credit to ActionForex and original author for the analysis and data presented.*
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**Introduction**
The British Pound to US Dollar currency pair (GBP/USD) has been displaying notable levels of volatility in recent weeks. With central bank policies diverging, fluctuating macroeconomic indicators, and shifting risk sentiment in financial markets, the GBP/USD weekly outlook warrants a detailed review. In this article, we examine technical chart patterns, key support and resistance levels, and fundamental events driving this major currency pair. Additionally, we outline critical scenarios that could define the pair’s movement in the near term, drawing directly from the thorough analysis provided by ActionForex.com.
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**Weekly Review: Where Does GBP/USD Stand?**
Throughout the week, GBP/USD experienced significant fluctuations driven by a mix of domestic UK data, US macro releases, and global risk appetite shifts. After multiple attempts to break above established resistance, the pair ended the week within a tightly defined range, with both bulls and bears lacking clear conviction.
– **Midweek Resilience:** The Pound showed resilience, recovering from earlier dips near the psychological 1.2600 handle.
– **Resistance Capping Upside:** Recovery attempts found firm resistance near 1.2800, keeping gains in check.
– **Dollar Fluctuations:** US economic data leaks and shifting Fed rate expectations caused abrupt swings, but dollar support limited major Pound advances.
– **Rally Failure:** Ultimately, bullish momentum faded and capped any rally, steering the pair back toward the lower end of the range by week’s close.
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**Technical Analysis: Chart Patterns, Levels, and Scenarios**
A deep dive into price action and indicators over the past week reveals a market trapped in indecision but showing hints of bearish undercurrents.
– **Near-term Trend:** GBP/USD has failed to sustain gains above 1.2740, repeatedly rejected near this level.
– **Indicators:**
– **Daily MACD:** Moving Average Convergence Divergence on the daily chart signals waning momentum, with histogram turning negative.
– **RSI:** Relative Strength Index slipped below neutral 50 on several occasions but avoids deeply oversold readings.
– **Moving Averages:** The pair is testing the support of the 55-day EMA, having breached and then recovered above the 20-day EMA several times.
– **Support and Resistance:**
– **Immediate support:** Sits at 1.2649 (recent swing low) and then at 1.2591 (50 percent retracement of 1.2298 to 1.2847 rally).
– **Immediate resistance:** Firm cap at 1.2743 (20-day EMA) and further at 1.2847 (multi-month swing high).
– **Further resistance:** Any breach of 1.2847 could open up space for the next significant barrier near 1.3000-1.3050.
**Short-Term Scenarios:**
1. **Bullish Case:**
– A sustained break above 1.2743/1.2847 would indicate the bulls are regaining control.
– Possible rally extension towards the 1.3000 region, with confirmation needed via strong bullish daily closes.
2. **Bearish Case:**
– Repeated failures at resistance increase the likelihood of a support break.
– Close below 1.2591 could exacerbate bearish pressure, targeting 1.2450 and then 1.2298, the last major swing low.
**Medium-Term Outlook:**
– The weekly chart signals that the Pound holds an edge so long as it remains above the 55-week EMA (currently around 1.2600), but sustained pressure below this level could shift the medium-term outlook moderately bearish.
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**Fundamental Drivers: Key Events and Influences**
While technical analysis offers
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