Original Author: ActionForex.com
Rewritten and Expanded Article: EUR/USD Weekly Technical Outlook
Overview:
The EUR/USD currency pair experienced a moderate rise during the past week, rebounding from recent lows and closing higher at 1.0894. Despite the upward movement, the rally was constrained by a key resistance zone, preventing a more aggressive push to the upside. The pair’s technical structure remains within a corrective pattern as it attempts to stabilize following the previous sharp decline. This article presents a comprehensive technical outlook on the EUR/USD pair with projections for the coming weeks.
Key Weekly Developments:
– EUR/USD rebounded from a low of 1.0804 to close at 1.0894.
– The minor recovery followed a deeper mid-term correction, though it lacked strong bullish momentum.
– The current structure appears to be a consolidation phase rather than a solid reversal.
– The focus remains around critical Fibonacci levels and trendline analysis for predicting future price movements.
Minor Uptrend in Play, but Overall Structure Remains Within Correction
– The pair showed a measured rebound from 1.0804, a region close to the 61.8 percent Fibonacci projection of the move from 1.1138 to 1.0600 extended from 1.0894.
– Despite the upward movement, overall momentum remains fragile, and a sustained move above the weekly resistance is still lacking.
– The formation points to a possible consolidation rather than the confirmation of a new impulsive bullish wave.
Weekly Resistance and Support Levels:
– Immediate resistance lies at 1.0915, marked by the 61.8 percent retracement of the 1.1138 to 1.0600 downtrend.
– A break above this barrier may lead to accelerated buying interest, potentially opening the path toward 1.1000 and beyond.
– Initial support remains at 1.0804, the focal low posted last week.
– A break below this level might reignite bearish sentiment, putting the 1.0694 and 1.0600 levels into focus as potential targets.
Overall Weekly Outlook:
– For now, near-term bias remains neutral. The pair’s movement is encased in a corrective channel, with bullish attempts struggling to breach previous highs.
– A decisive move above 1.0915 resistance will turn focus toward 1.1138, the high posted in late December 2023.
– Conversely, a rejection at current levels and a subsequent break below 1.0804 would confirm a return to bearish mode, with deeper retracements likely in the coming sessions.
– As bullish momentum remains capped, traders should remain cautious about false breakouts.
Technical Analysis:
Moving Averages and Indicators:
– The 55-day Exponential Moving Average is currently keeping a lid on upside momentum around the 1.0900 region.
– Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is hovering close to the mid-50 range, indicating neutral momentum.
– Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains trapped close to the zero line, suggesting lack of clear trend strength.
– On the weekly chart, MACD is flat, while RSI readings are also neutral, reflecting the pair’s lack of strong directional conviction.
Important Fibonacci Projections:
– The initial bullish attempt met resistance near the 61.8 percent retracement of 1.1138 to 1.0600 at 1.0915.
– Breaking through 1.0915 would expose the next Fibonacci resistance zona at 1.0983 (78.6 percent retracement).
– On the downside, a breach of 1.0804 exposes Fibonacci support near 1.0755 (50 percent projection of the same leg).
Price Action and Trendline Analysis:
– Price remains constrained within a corrective downward sloping channel initiated from the 1.1138 high.
– Recent candles show long upper shadows, indicating selling pressure near resistance.
– Trendline from the
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