**Weekly Forex Analysis: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/CAD Outlook**
*Based on analysis by Haresh Menghani, with expanded insights for deeper understanding*
The foreign exchange market presents constant opportunities and challenges for traders and investors, demanding careful attention to technical formations, fundamental catalysts, and sentiment changes. This week, major currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/CAD are under scrutiny as they respond to shifting economic landscapes, central bank narratives, and evolving geopolitical factors. Below, we delve into the latest technical outlook, fundamental developments, and likely scenarios for each pair, integrating insights from Haresh Menghani’s original FXStreet analysis, supplemented by additional market intelligence.
—
## EUR/USD: Grappling With Upward Barriers and Macro Drivers
The EUR/USD pair, a bellwether for global currency market trends, has spent recent sessions in a relatively tight trading range, unable to establish a decisive directional bias. Several forces are in play:
### Technical Overview
– The pair has encountered resistance around the 1.0850 to 1.0880 zone, where previous attempts to move higher have met selling pressure.
– On the downside, support is evident near the 1.0800 psychological handle and extends towards 1.0765, which aligns with 50-day and 100-day moving averages.
– Short-term oscillators remain neutral but hint at possible bullish momentum if resistance levels are overcome.
– A sustained move above 1.0880 could open the door for a retest of the 1.0925 and 1.0960 marks, both previously acting as key reversal zones.
– Failing to hold above 1.0800 exposes the pair to further losses, possibly revisiting 1.0730 before stronger support near 1.0700.
### Fundamental Catalysts
– Recent data out of the eurozone, including subdued inflation prints and lackluster growth, have kept European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers cautious.
– Market participants are weighing when the ECB might signal a rate cut, given disinflationary trends and underlying economic fragility.
– The US dollar, supported by a resilient US economy and ongoing hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve, continues to cap euro advances.
– Heightened geopolitical tension, particularly in Eastern Europe, is sapping risk appetite, further restricting EUR/USD upside.
### Key Influences for the Coming Week
– The European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and other officials’ comments will be scrutinized for hints at monetary policy shifts.
– US economic data, including inflation numbers (Consumer Price Index) and retail sales, will play a pivotal role in setting short-term direction.
– Traders should monitor US Treasury yields, which, if rising, may reinforce dollar strength.
### Scenarios to Watch
– A radical improvement in eurozone economic sentiment or a dovish shift by the Fed could propel EUR/USD above resistance, with room to extend higher.
– Conversely, strong US data or fresh
Read more on AUD/USD trading.