**Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Maintains Position Above June Low**
*Based on the original article by Thomas Westwater, with additional insights for further context and analysis.*
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The performance of the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the US Dollar (USD) remains a key topic of interest for forex traders and market analysts. Over recent weeks, the AUD/USD currency pair has managed to hold above its June lows, despite a range of challenges from global interest rates, economic data releases, and shifting sentiment in the commodities market.
This extended analysis draws from Thomas Westwater’s work for FOREX.com as well as supplementary information to provide a comprehensive overview of the Australian dollar’s prospects, the factors influencing its value, and what to expect moving forward.
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## The Current Technical Landscape for AUD/USD
The AUD/USD currency pair has displayed notable resilience in recent trading sessions. After a downward move earlier in June, driven primarily by US dollar strength and broader risk-off sentiment, the pair managed to stabilize above its June low.
**Key Technical Points**
– **June Low Resilience:** The AUD/USD bounced from support near the 0.6580 level, established as the June low, and has since avoided a definitive breakdown below this threshold.
– **Consolidation Phase:** The pair is currently consolidating, fluctuating within a relatively narrow range between 0.6580 and 0.6670.
– **Moving Averages:** The 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) are providing resistance and support, respectively. Motion around these levels can often signal potential shifts in momentum.
– **Relative Strength Index (RSI):** The daily RSI hovers around the midpoint, not in overbought nor oversold territory, indicating a balanced market lacking strong directional bias.
– **Fibonacci Retracement Zones:** The retracement from April highs places significant levels at 0.6630 (23.6% retracement) as resistance and 0.6580 as crucial support.
– **Potential Scenarios:**
– A decisive break below 0.6580 could pave the way for further declines towards 0.6540 and 0.6490.
– Sustained movement above 0.6630 could target higher resistance at 0.6670 and even 0.6710.
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## Fundamental Drivers Behind AUD/USD
Several fundamental factors are shaping the outlook for the Australian dollar versus the US dollar.
### 1. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Policy
– **Current Stance:** The RBA has maintained interest rates at 4.35 percent since November 2023, citing ongoing, but moderating, inflation and a cautious approach to monetary easing.
– **Inflation Trends:** Australian inflation has decelerated from 7.8 percent (annualized, late 2022) to around 3.6 percent, but remains above the RBA’s 2-3 percent target band.
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