**AUD/USD Price Outlook: A Decline Toward 200-Day SMA Remains Probable**
*Based on analysis by Alberto Muñoz, FXStreet. Supplementary information included from Investing.com and DailyFX.*
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### Overview
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has come under significant selling pressure in recent trading sessions, primarily against the US Dollar (USD). The AUD/USD currency pair, commonly cited as a barometer for risk appetite and economic developments between Australia and the United States, finds itself at an important technical crossroads. Investors and traders are closely watching the pair as it approaches critical support levels and technical indicators that could shape the next major move.
This article combines insights from Alberto Muñoz’s recent analysis on FXStreet with data from other reputable sources to offer a comprehensive outlook for AUD/USD. Particular emphasis will be placed on the potential for a decline towards the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), underlying fundamental drivers, and key technical levels in play for the near to medium term.
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### Recent Price Action in AUD/USD
– AUD/USD saw a sharp pullback after attempting to reclaim key resistance near 0.6700.
– The pair reversed and has been declining, trading below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating short-term bearish momentum.
– As of the latest data, AUD/USD stands just above the 0.6600 mark after failing to break above recent highs.
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### Main Drivers Behind The Decline
1. **Stronger US Dollar:**
– The US Dollar has found support from economic resilience in the United States, particularly robust labor market data and expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for longer than expected.
– Markets see sticky inflationary pressures in the US, further reducing the likelihood of immediate interest rate cuts, a stance reflected in recent FOMC meeting minutes.
2. **Weaker Australian Data:**
– Domestic factors have weighed on the Australian Dollar. Australia’s economic data has shown signs of softness, including subdued retail sales, moderating consumer confidence, and a cooling housing market.
– While the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has maintained a relatively hawkish stance, suggesting it is open to more tightening if required, it has stopped short of signaling imminent rate hikes, which takes some support away from AUD.
3. **Risk Sentiment and Commodity Prices:**
– AUD is often regarded as a risk-sensitive currency, and global risk aversion—prompted by geopolitical tensions or uncertainty in global growth—tends to hurt the Australian Dollar.
– Recent weakness in major commodity prices, such as iron ore, which is a key Australian export, has also negatively affected AUD/USD.
– Growing concerns regarding China’s property market and broader economic health add downward pressure, given Australia’s strong trade links to China.
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### Technical Analysis
According to Alberto Muñoz’s FXStreet analysis and supplementary chart review, the technical outlook for AUD/USD remains
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