Title: Weekly Forex Market Outlook: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD & More
Original Analysis by: Matías Salord at FXStreet
Overview
In the latest weekly Forex forecast from Matías Salord, the global foreign exchange market is examined with a focus on major currency pairs including EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD. The report provides insights into recent price movements, key economic indicators, and potential scenarios for the upcoming trading days. This expanded analysis dives deeper into Salord’s perspective, offering a detailed look at what traders should keep an eye on.
Global Market Sentiment
Last week was marked by sharp fluctuations in multiple currency pairs, largely triggered by economic data releases, central bank commentary, and geopolitical events. Traders saw risk sentiment shift multiple times due to mixed signals regarding inflation, labor market statistics, and interest rate outlooks from major central banks.
Some key themes influencing sentiment:
– Uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve’s rate path
– Eurozone struggles with inflationary pressures
– Mixed economic signals from UK
– Weakness in commodity-driven currencies like AUD and NZD
EUR/USD Analysis
The EUR/USD pair faced significant resistance last week despite moments of upward momentum. The pair attempted to break above key levels but remained trapped within a broad consolidation range for most sessions.
Key Technical Details:
– Resistance lies near 1.1020, which has proved difficult to surpass
– Support has been holding steady around 1.0850
– The RSI and MACD shows indecisiveness, offering no clear direction
– The 20-day moving average served as a magnet, hovering around 1.0940
Fundamental Triggers to Watch:
– Eurozone inflation data: With price rises slowing, ECB may adopt a more dovish tone
– US employment figures: A stronger labor market could boost the US dollar
– Federal Reserve commentary: Any indication of a longer pause could weaken USD and benefit EUR
Outlook:
– A clear breakout above 1.1020 would indicate bullish momentum
– A drop below 1.0850 could bring about bearish pressure, possibly targeting 1.0780
GBP/USD Analysis
The British pound remained under pressure for much of the week, weighed down by mixed economic data and uncertain monetary policy direction from the Bank of England (BoE).
Key Technical Indicators:
– The pair remains capped below 1.2800, a tough hurdle in recent weeks
– Support held at the 1.2600 psychological level
– Price remains stuck between the 50-day and 100-day moving averages
– Volume appeared to fade, indicating a lack of commitment from both bulls and bears
Fundamental Drivers:
– Better-than-expected UK GDP data gave temporary relief to the pound
– Inflation print higher than estimated supported short-term strength
– Questions remain about wage growth and consumer spending
– BoE officials have yet to signal a clear path toward rate cuts
Key Levels:
– Upside resistance: 1.2800, followed by 1.2860
– Downside support: 1.2600, then 1.2520
Outlook:
– Break above 1.2800 could trigger a short-term rally
– A fall below 1.2600 would bring the bearish scenario back into focus
AUD/USD Analysis
The Australian dollar struggled throughout the week, primarily due to weakness in commodities and risk-off sentiment across global markets. Coupled with a relatively cautious Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), bearish pressures increased on the Aussie.
Technical Snapshot:
– AUD/USD is locked within a descending channel on the 4-hour chart
– Resistance is forming near the 0.6700 mark
– Strong support appears at 0.6570, with an intermediate floor at 0.6620
– The pair is trading below the 100-day moving average, reinforcing negative momentum
Economic Concerns:
– Iron ore prices, a bellwether for Australia’s
Read more on EUR/USD trading.