The following article is a rewritten and expanded version based on “USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook” originally published on ActionForex.com. Credit to ActionForex for the original analysis.
Title: USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Intraday Outlook – Continued Bearish Pressure with Key Levels to Watch
As of today’s trading session, USD/JPY continues to trend downward. The pair remains under pressure, extending last week’s retreat from recent highs. The technical outlook points toward a possible continuation of the decline if key support levels break, confirming increased selling momentum. Below, we provide a comprehensive technical analysis and broader context for USD/JPY’s price action, combining short-term observations with longer-term trend analyses.
Current Intraday Outlook
The current outlook for USD/JPY maintains a bearish bias. This sentiment takes shape following the pair’s retreat from its recent peak of 151.89. While not conclusively breaking all significant support levels yet, ongoing price movements signal that downside risks persist within today’s trading environment.
– The break of minor support at 150.17 earlier increased the weight on USD/JPY, dragging it closer to further support zones. The pair has since traded below this former support, confirming increased seller strength.
– A deeper decline is expected in the short term. The next key support level to watch now is 148.79, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 140.25 to 151.89 upward move.
– A firm break below 148.79 will deepen corrective pressure, potentially exposing 146.47, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Declining towards this level signals a meaningful correction from the recent high and will settle the argument between trend continuation vs. full reversal.
– Conversely, a rebound above the minor resistance of 150.40 could neutralize the intraday bias. This would suggest that the correction has completed at 149.18 (today’s intraday low at time of writing) and that a potential rebound could resume, targeting previous highs near 151.89.
For now, price action remains weak, especially while trading rests beneath 150.40 resistance on minor rebounds. A break there would need corresponding support from momentum indicators to validate the strength of any bullish reversal attempt.
Key Levels to Monitor:
Support Levels:
– 149.18 (intraday low)
– 148.79 (38.2% retracement from 140.25 to 151.89)
– 147.20 (previous resistance turned support from early March)
– 146.47 (61.8% retracement from 140.25 to 151.89)
Resistance Levels:
– 150.40 (minor rebound barrier)
– 150.90 (near-term peak before 151.89)
– 151.89 (cycle high and multiyear resistance)
Momentum Indicators:
– RSI is currently trending lower on 4-hour and daily charts, indicating that sellers are controlling momentum. The gradual shift from overbought conditions also hints at a cooling bull trend.
– MACD on the daily chart is turning south and nearing a bearish crossover, further confirming short-term down drift potential.
– Stochastic oscillator has dropped below 50 on intraday timeframes, supporting continued downside until another oversold signal appears.
Bigger Picture Remains Bullish, But Correction May Continue
Despite the current short-term weakness, the broader structure remains supportive of USD/JPY staying in an overall uptrend unless more significant support levels fall. Nevertheless, the recent price drop suggests the start of a potential medium-term correction before any resumption of upward movement.
– USD/JPY has been in an uptrend since the end of 2023, when it bottomed at 140.25 in December. Since then, the pair has gained over 1,600 pips, peaking at 151.89 in April 2024.
– The rally has been supported by divergent monetary policy stances.
Explore this further here: USD/JPY trading.