**AUD/USD Technical and Fundamental Analysis – Trends, Forecasts, and Key Influences**
*Adapted from the original FXStreet analysis via MiTrade. Additional information from Investing.com and DailyFX has been incorporated.*
—
### Introduction
The Australian Dollar (AUD) versus the United States Dollar (USD), popularly referenced as AUD/USD, represents a significant forex pair due to the economic stature of both Australia and the United States. The interplay of macroeconomic policies, central bank stances, and global risk sentiment makes this pair particularly responsive to shifts in global financial landscapes. Tracking the AUD/USD’s progress offers insights into both countries’ economies and larger market trends.
—
### Current Trend and Price Overview
– As of early August, AUD/USD has been attempting to extend gains above the 0.6750 mark but encounters resistance around the 0.6800 psychological level.
– The pair has recovered from recent lows seen in the first half of 2024, with market participants attributing strength to a combination of shifting monetary policy expectations and evolving global sentiment.
– As per the analysis from FXStreet through MiTrade, the pair has been consolidating after forming a base above 0.6600, and short-term momentum supports further upside while cautioning against overbought conditions.
—
### Key Influences Shaping AUD/USD
#### 1. **Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Policy Stance**
– The RBA maintained its cash rate at a multi-year high through Q2 and Q3 2024, citing persistent inflation as a concern.
– Hawkish undertones in the RBA’s communications have fueled expectations that rates will remain restrictive for an extended period, supporting the Australian Dollar.
– Markets are watching clues for the timing of a potential rate cut, with swaps pricing in an initial easing towards late 2024 or early 2025, contingent on inflation data.
#### 2. **US Federal Reserve Outlook**
– Dovish signals from the Federal Reserve have weighed on the US Dollar. The Fed is widely anticipated to pause hikes and possibly cut rates before the end of 2024.
– Weaker-than-anticipated US economic indicators, including cooling labor markets and subdued inflation, strengthen the odds of looser monetary policy.
– Diverging central bank policies can increase volatility in the AUD/USD pair as traders reassess interest rate differentials.
#### 3. **Australia’s Economic Performance**
– The Australian economy shows resilience, fueled by strong export demand, particularly from China. Key exports such as iron ore and coal have maintained favorable terms of trade.
– However, domestic consumption growth has moderated under the weight of higher borrowing costs.
– Labor market data, retail sales figures, and inflation prints remain pivotal for upcoming RBA moves and, by extension, AUD/USD direction.
#### 4. **US Economic Indicators**
– US GDP growth has slowed in recent quarters, and employment data have shown some softening.
– Any unexpected surge in inflation or jobs numbers
Read more on AUD/USD trading.