This article is a rewritten and expanded version of the original piece titled “EUR/USD Forex Signal: 14 August 2025,” originally authored by Richard Perry and published on DailyForex. The analysis has been significantly elaborated to ensure a comprehensive understanding of the EUR/USD technical landscape while providing the reader with a more robust and in-depth perspective.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis and Forecast for 14 August 2025
The EUR/USD currency pair remains in focus for forex traders as price action demonstrates signs of underlying weakness. As global market sentiment continues to fluctuate in response to shifting interest rate expectations from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), the pair is increasingly reactive to macroeconomic data, technical developments, and relative yield spreads. This report discusses the technical setup, fundamental backdrop, and trading strategies one can consider heading into mid-August 2025.
Key Technical Observations
– Price Continues to Consolidate Near August Lows:
– The EUR/USD has been trapped in a range, hovering around recent multi-week support. This has led to a cautious outlook as buyers remain hesitant to take control near key horizontal levels.
– The market has tested support at 1.0845 multiple times, highlighting the significance of this short-to-medium-term floor.
– Resistance is now firmly building near 1.0910–1.0925, creating a consolidation zone.
– Defined Downtrend Persists:
– The pair is trading below its descending 20-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), confirming technical weakness.
– Lower highs and lower lows continue to dominate the broader chart structure, enforcing a bearish sentiment among swing traders.
– A sequence of bearish candles on the daily chart further supports the idea of downward momentum building.
– RSI Gives Little Direction in Near-Term but Signals Broader Caution:
– The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently hovers near 39, which leans bearish but is not yet in oversold territory.
– This signals limited downside motion for now, but there is room for bears to push lower before momentum indicators force a retracement.
Fundamental Context and Market Sentiment
– Divergence in Central Bank Policies:
– Traders are still digesting signals from policymakers at both the ECB and the Fed.
– Recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve members have bolstered the US dollar as markets begin to price in the possibility of prolonged higher interest rates throughout the remainder of 2025.
– Meanwhile, the ECB appears increasingly cautious with inflation in the Eurozone trailing behind expectations, raising anticipation of a rate cut in Q4 2025.
– Inflation Data and Upcoming Economic Reports:
– The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) have both come out higher than expected over the past two months, stoking speculation that the Fed may delay any potential easing.
– On the European side, German industrial production and overall Eurozone services data have shown signs of stagnation. This divergence adds further pressure on the Euro, weighing on the EUR/USD cross.
– Safe Haven Flows and Global Risk Sentiment:
– Amid renewed volatility in global equity markets, risk sentiment has deteriorated slightly, pushing the US dollar higher due to its traditional role as a safe-haven asset.
– In times of risk-off conditions, the Euro typically underperforms relative to USD, further adding downside momentum to EUR/USD.
Short-Term Chart Patterns and Key Levels
– Near-Term Support and Resistance:
– Immediate support is seen at 1.0840–1.0845, where buyers have consistently stepped in over the past two weeks.
– A breakdown below this level opens the door for a retest of 1.0800, a significant round-number support that aligns with prior pivot levels seen in June 2025.
– Resistance is firmly placed at 1.0905–1.0920
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