**GBP/USD Weekly Outlook: June 17–21, 2024**
*Based on the analysis by ActionForex.com, authored by team analysts. The content herein delivers an in-depth technical and fundamental outlook for the GBP/USD pair for the week ahead.*
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### Market Recap: GBP/USD Moves and Macro Backdrop
The GBP/USD duo staged another robust week, reflecting moderate bullish momentum, largely influenced by a combination of macroeconomic announcements from both the UK and US. The British Pound capitalized on the persistent weakness of the US Dollar, while resilient domestic data solidified Sterling’s recent gains.
– **GBP/USD closed the week in positive territory**, continuing the rebound from the late-May lows near the 1.2590 region.
– The pair maintained a bullish structure supported by upbeat UK labor and GDP data, alongside the anticipation surrounding next week’s Bank of England (BoE) policy meeting.
– The greenback suffered as softer-than-expected US inflation numbers pressured yields, fueling risk appetite and making room for GBP advance.
**Key Developments Shaping Sentiment:**
– **UK data highlights:** Employment data was surprisingly resilient, with the Unemployment Rate ticking slightly higher but wage inflation printing stronger than anticipated. GDP for April returned to growth, offering optimism that the UK economy may avoid a significant downturn.
– **US data tone:** US Consumer Price Index delivered a weaker-than-expected reading, supporting expectations for a more accommodative path from the Federal Reserve. The Fed, however, signaled a “higher-for-longer” stance, which tempered some USD downside but was insufficient to erase losses.
– **Central Bank focus:** The Bank of England remains cautious ahead of the July General Election. Markets largely expect policymakers to remain on hold, keeping the rate at 5.25%. However, indications of an autumn rate cut may subtly shift GBP dynamics.
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### GBP/USD Technical Analysis
#### Weekly Chart Overview
GBP/USD ended last week at 1.2702, printing a fourth consecutive weekly gain and setting the stage for the next strategic moves. The technical framework reveals GBP/USD in an extension phase of a medium-term uptrend, yet capped by well-defined resistance levels.
**Major Technical Considerations:**
– **Support:** The 55-day EMA, currently at 1.2630, acts as near-term support, while the previous swing low at 1.2590 is a critical line in the sand.
– **Resistance:** Consolidation faces immediate friction at the prior June high of 1.2817, followed by the long-term cluster zone at 1.2890–1.3000 (the year-to-date top).
– The momentum structure is bullish, as shown by decisive closes above both 20 and 55 EMA bands, and weekly RSI remaining in the upper neutral territory at 58–61.
– The pair is trading within a medium-term rising channel, with price action suggesting the potential for further bullish exploration unless a pronounced reversal develops below 1.2590.
#### Daily Chart & Intraday Perspective
– GBP/USD has continued to produce higher highs and higher lows since mid-May.
– Latest price action shows the pair now testing a horizontal resistance near 1.2740, with intermediate support seen at 1.2670 and breakout confirmation ideally above 1.2817.
– MACD on the daily is sloped upwards, supporting trend-following strategies, while the Stochastic indicator approaches overbought but has not signaled a reversal.
#### Key Levels to Watch
– **Immediate resistance:** 1.2740, 1.2817, 1.2890
– **Near-term support:** 1.2670, 1.2630, 1.2590 (recent swing low)
– **Medium-term range:** 1.2495–1.3000
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### GBP/USD: Fundamental Outlook
#### UK Economic Landscape
– **Labor market:** UK wage
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