**GBP/USD Weekly Outlook: June 10-14, 2024**
*Based on original analysis by ActionForex.com*
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## Overview
The previous week saw GBP/USD struggling with direction as traders weighed robust US data against lingering uncertainty from UK political shifts and upcoming macroeconomic releases. While sterling found some support, momentum faded on approach to critical resistance levels, and the Dollar’s broad resilience tempered any aggressive bullish momentum in GBP/USD. This week, the focus pivots to major UK labor market statistics, US inflationary readings, and the Federal Reserve policy decision.
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## Weekly Performance Recap
GBP/USD started the week attempting to rally but ultimately lacked follow-through, capped near the mid-to-upper 1.27 area. A stronger-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday rejuvenated the Dollar, driving GBP/USD back below the 1.28 mark.
Some key performance notes:
– Weekly range was contained between 1.2652 (low) and 1.2807 (high).
– The pair closed just above 1.2710, within the weekly neutral range.
– Dollar strength was reinforced as US yields pushed higher following nonfarm payrolls data.
The cautious tone reflected the market’s wait-and-see approach ahead of vital data and the anticipation of Fed guidance.
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## Technical Analysis
### Trend and Patterns
After losing near-term upside momentum, GBP/USD seems to be entering a consolidative phase. The following technical observations are important:
– The pair is still trading above its 55-day EMA but faces difficulty sustaining gains above 1.2800.
– Trendline support from the March low (approximately 1.2300 zone) remains intact, suggesting buyers are likely to defend setbacks toward 1.2650-1.2670.
– The RSI indicator on the daily chart is neutral, not presently signaling overbought or oversold conditions.
– 4-hour and daily candles show failure to close above 1.2800, highlighting resistance.
### Key Technical Levels
**To the upside:**
– Immediate resistance is at 1.2800/1.2825, a zone which capped moves repeatedly in recent weeks.
– A clear break above 1.2850 would open up the path toward 1.2892 (March swing high) and even 1.3141 (July 2023 high) if bullish momentum returns.
**To the downside:**
– Initial support lies at 1.2675-1.2650 (May 23-24 lows and rising trendline).
– Further weakness could see the pair test 1.2591 (50% retracement of March–May rally).
– Deeper pullbacks expose 1.2500/1.2450 (confluence of Fib supports and April/May swing lows).
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## Fundamental Drivers
This week’s pivot points for GBP/USD revolve around developments in both US and UK macroeconomic landscapes.
### UK Macro Update
– **Labor Market Data (Tuesday):** Markets await Average Earnings and Employment change numbers. Wage inflation in particular will be scrutinized. Sticky wage growth remains a key concern for the Bank of England (BoE) as it gauges the persistence of underlying inflation.
– **GDP (Wednesday):** UK GDP is expected to have picked up slightly after a weak Q1, but any negative surprises could dent sterling.
– **Politics:** UK general election campaign continues to stoke some background volatility. Uncertainty over future fiscal and monetary policy may cap gains for the currency until after the July 4 vote.
### US Macro Update
– **CPI (Wednesday):** The upcoming US inflation report is the week’s central focus. A softer print may stoke expectations for a Fed rate cut as early as September, while an upside surprise will help the Dollar.
– **FOMC Meeting (Wednesday evening):** Though the Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, any dovish
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