Original article credit: Matt Weller, FOREX.com
Title: Comprehensive Update: WTI Oil Price Forecast as Crude Tests Key Support – August 15, 2025
As the global energy market continues to experience volatility, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices have begun to pull back from recent gains and are now testing critical support levels. This retracement comes after weeks of bullish momentum driven by tightened production from OPEC+ nations, geopolitical unrest, and positive macroeconomic indicators. However, a confluence of technical signals and fundamental uncertainties has prompted traders and analysts to reassess the outlook for oil prices in the near term.
This article analyzes the current price action in the WTI market, discussing technical chart formations, key support and resistance zones, macro contributors to price movement, and market expectations moving forward. We integrate insights from FOREX.com’s Matt Weller and additional data from reputable sources including EIA reports, OANDA, and CNBC.
WTI Crude Oil Price: Recent Performance and Pullback
• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has backed off from its recent high near $85 per barrel. Prices are now approaching a critical technical support zone around $81 per barrel.
• The pullback follows a sharp rally over the last quarter, where WTI climbed nearly 20 percent from lows registered below $70.
• Previously, oil had been rising on the back of robust summer demand, supply discipline from OPEC+, and U.S. inventory drawdowns.
Chart Technicals: Key Support Zone in Focus
The recent technical picture shows that WTI is consolidating after a notable uptrend, now approaching previous resistance turned support.
• One of the key technical levels being watched is the $80.50-$81.00 per barrel zone.
– This range has served as pivotal resistance during previous price rallies in April and May 2024.
– Since then, the former resistance level has shown signs of turning into support, a typical behavior in trending markets.
• Moving averages are still exhibiting a bullish bias.
– The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) currently sits near $81, aligning with the support zone.
– The 200-day SMA is further below around $76.50, offering longer-term support in case of deeper pullbacks.
• Momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD are showing signs of cooling off.
– RSI has dropped from overbought levels above 70 to near the 50 neutral line, indicating a potential pause in bullish momentum.
– MACD lines are converging, hinting at a possible bearish crossover, which could propel further downside pressure.
• Price action in candlestick formations indicates uncertainty, especially after a doji pattern formed two trading sessions ago, often interpreted as a sign of market indecision.
Fundamentals Influencing Oil Prices
To understand the potential for WTI crude’s next move, it’s essential to explore the macroeconomic, geopolitical, and supply-demand dynamics currently influencing energy markets.
1. U.S. Oil Inventories and Supply Outlook
– According to the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly report dated August 14, 2025, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.5 million barrels for the week ending August 9, 2025.
– This follows drawdowns in previous weeks, highlighting consistent demand and/or constrained supply.
– Total domestic production remains largely stable at 12.3 million barrels per day.
– The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) continues to be replenished gradually, which has reduced additional oil being injected into markets.
2. OPEC+ Policy and Production Cuts
– Saudi Arabia has extended its voluntary production cut of 1 million barrels per day through September 2025, with potential for another extension.
– Russia is also maintaining its export reduction pledges of 300,000 barrels per day through August and tentatively into
Read more on USD/CAD trading.