**EUR/USD Edges Higher After Mixed US Data; Markets Turn Attention to Trump-Putin Summit**
*Adapted, expanded, and updated from an article by FXStreet*
**Summary:**
The EUR/USD currency pair strengthened in the aftermath of mixed US economic data, while global investors began to shift their focus to a pivotal meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The foreign exchange market is responding to a combination of macroeconomic releases, central bank expectations, and geopolitical developments, all of which could influence the next moves for the euro and the US dollar.
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## Recent Market Movements
The EUR/USD pair recorded moderate gains in Monday’s trading session, climbing from intraday lows as US economic figures painted a mixed picture of the world’s largest economy. The data, including retail sales and manufacturing numbers, provided little support for the dollar, prompting some traders to rotate into the euro.
### Key Data Releases
**US Retail Sales (July):**
– Actual: 0.5% month-on-month, versus expected 0.1%
– Retail sales excluding autos: 0.6%, beating forecasts of 0.3%
– The solid headline figures suggest consumer resilience, often a positive signal for US economic growth and supportive of the dollar under normal circumstances.
**Empire State Manufacturing Index:**
– Came in at 25.6, compared to expectations for a reading of 20.0
– Indicates stronger-than-expected growth in New York’s factory sector
**Import and Export Prices:**
– Import prices fell by -0.1% monthly, missing consensus expectations, while export prices fell -0.5%
– The decline in export prices may highlight easing international demand for US goods, potentially affecting trade dynamics
**Takeaways:**
– The combination of robust retail sales and healthy manufacturing data should technically offer tailwinds for the greenback.
– However, softer inflation readings and lower export prices moderated enthusiasm for the US dollar, leaving room for the euro to recover from earlier losses.
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## Analyzing the Euro’s Recovery
The euro gained relative to the dollar despite mixed macro indicators in both the eurozone and the US.
**Factors Supporting the Euro:**
– Uplift coming after the euro retested monthly lows near 1.1530, suggesting technical support around that level
– Profit-taking on recent US dollar strength ahead of geopolitical risks, particularly the Trump-Putin meeting in Helsinki
– Some stabilization in German and southern European bond yields supplied support, as did signs of relative calm in Italian politics
**Challenges Facing the Euro:**
– Eurozone inflation figures continue to lag well behind the European Central Bank’s target, which dampens expectations for any quick rate hikes by the ECB
– Ongoing trade worries and the US administration’s protectionist stance still threaten eurozone exporters
– Fresh Italian political headlines or deterioration in EU-periphery debt markets could reintroduce volatility
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## Geopolitics at the Forefront:
Read more on AUD/USD trading.