**2025 Pound to Dollar Week-Ahead Forecast: Sterling Below 1.36 as Traders Eye Jackson Hole Symposium**
*Original source: Written by James Watson, ExchangeRates.org.uk*
In the evolving landscape of the global currency markets, the British Pound (GBP) has found itself struggling to gain traction against the US Dollar (USD). As the market transitions from the previous week’s buzz into the next, investor focus sharpens on pivotal upcoming events, particularly the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. The question on many minds is whether the GBP/USD rate will manage to stage a recovery above the recent lows near 1.36 or succumb to further downside pressures. Drawing on analysis provided by James Watson at ExchangeRates.org.uk, this article delves into recent performance, forthcoming risk factors, and technical outlooks for the Pound to Dollar exchange rate.
## GBP/USD Recent Performance Recap
Over the preceding week, the Pound to Dollar exchange rate displayed notable downside momentum, slipping below the psychological 1.36 barrier and closing around the 1.3550 level. This move was fueled by growing demand for the US Dollar across multiple fronts:
– **Safe-haven flows:** Continued global uncertainties, ranging from persistent inflationary concerns to renewed geopolitical tensions, have prompted investors to favor the Dollar as a safe-haven asset.
– **US economic resilience:** Stronger-than-expected economic data, particularly in employment and retail sectors, has continued to support the case for a more hawkish Federal Reserve.
– **Sterling stumbling blocks:** While UK inflation has shown signs of staying uncomfortably high, mixed economic indicators and lingering Brexit effects have kept the Pound under pressure.
**James Watson notes:**
“The Pound’s attempt to consolidate above the 1.36 handle was repeatedly thwarted by a resurgence in Dollar buying, particularly as markets absorbed another round of robust US macro releases,” he writes, adding that “sterling bulls have reason to be cautious until key catalysts play out.”
## Key Drivers Influencing GBP/USD
### 1. Jackson Hole Economic Symposium
Among the key calendar highlights in the week ahead is the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, an event that often sets the tone for global central banking policy.
– **Possible Fed Policy Signals:** Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech will be a major focal point, as market participants search for clues regarding the US central bank’s stance on interest rates and balance sheet policies.
– **Impact on Dollar:** Any indication that the Fed remains concerned about inflation or is prepared to delay monetary easing will likely strengthen the Dollar further.
– **Implications for Sterling:** Should Powell signal a less hawkish approach, the Pound may find reprieve; conversely, continued caution or hawkishness would likely see GBP/USD extend downward.
### 2. UK Data & Bank of England Developments
While broader risk sentiment remains dominant, UK domestic data and central bank outlooks can influence short-term market direction.
– **Inflation and Labor Data:** With CPI and wages reports on the horizon, any upside surprises in inflation or signs of tightness in UK labor markets may revive bets on future Bank of England rate hikes.
– **BoE Policy Rhetoric:** Recent commentary from Bank of England officials has emphasized patience but also vigilance. Markets await fresh signals on whether the BoE believes inflation will prove stickier than anticipated.
– **Growth Concerns:** UK GDP growth readings continue to sit in the crosshairs, with any further evidence of economic slowdown likely to exacerbate Sterling’s vulnerability.
### 3. Global Risk Appetite and Geopolitics
– **Risk-Off Sentiment:** Global equity market volatility and ongoing geopolitical risks (notably in Asia and the Middle East) have amplified demand for safe-haven currencies, most prominently the US Dollar.
– **Sensitive to Risk Events:** The Pound, often seen as a pro-cyclical currency, tends to weaken in times of risk aversion.
## Technical Analysis: Key GBP/USD Levels to Watch
Technical charts
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