### AUD/USD Weekly Technical Analysis and Outlook
*Based in part on an article by ActionForex, with additional insights.*
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#### Summary
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continued its recent downtrend against the US Dollar (USD), bringing focus to key support and resistance zones for the coming week. Technical signals suggest potential for a short-term rebound, though the pair remains pressured by broader bearish sentiment and fundamental challenges. This detailed analysis reviews technical developments, sentiment drivers, and macroeconomic factors influencing AUD/USD, offering traders a structured outlook for the week ahead.
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### 1. Review of Recent Price Action
– **Last Week’s Performance**
– AUD/USD experienced volatile trading, ending the week near recent lows.
– The currency pair attempted to recover early in the period, but failed to sustain gains above major resistance.
– Bearish momentum re-emerged, leading to a retest of support zones near the 0.6575 region.
– **Drivers of Weakness**
– The USD maintained strength on robust US economic data and renewed risk aversion.
– The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is displaying a cautious wait-and-see approach, contrasting with hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve.
– Geopolitical uncertainties and signs of slowing China’s economy are indirectly weighing on the Aussie.
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### 2. Technical Outlook
#### a) Trend Analysis
– **Daily Chart Overview**
– AUD/USD remains within a broad range with a bearish tilt.
– Failure to break higher past 0.6714 marks a short-term technical barrier.
– The recent sell-off saw the pair find support just above the 0.6570 region.
– **Weekly Chart Insights**
– The longer-term downtrend persists, despite intermittent rebounds.
– Moving averages align bearishly, with the 20-week SMA below the 50- and 100-week SMAs.
– Oscillators such as the RSI and MACD reflect ongoing bearish momentum, but are not yet oversold.
#### b) Support and Resistance Levels
– **Immediate Support**
– 0.6570: Recent swing low and near-term pivot.
– 0.6520: May 2024 swing low, additional support on break.
– **Key Resistance**
– 0.6714/0.6730: Last week’s highs and persistent overhead barrier.
– 0.6820: Early June resistance level, top of the broader consolidation range.
#### c) Technical Indicators
– **Momentum Oscillators**
– RSI hovers near 40 on the daily chart, suggesting potential for a pause in selling.
– Stochastic indicator is approaching oversold conditions.
– **Volume and Price Action**
– Volume has picked up on declines, indicating persistent selling pressure.
– No clear reversal patterns have emerged on the daily or 4-hour charts.
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### 3. Fundamental Outlook
#### a) US Dollar Strength
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