**GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: 24th to 29th August 2025**
*Analysis and Writing Credit: DailyForex.com*
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**Overview**
As we approach the penultimate week of August 2025, the GBP/USD currency pair takes center stage in the forex market. Having weathered a series of fundamental and technical challenges in recent weeks, cable traders are eyeing potential breakouts and reversals with cautious optimism. This weekly forecast delves into the expected movements of GBP/USD for the week of August 24th to 29th, 2025, examining key technical levels, crucial economic data, and sentiment drivers that may determine directionality. This detailed analysis is adapted and expanded from the original work by DailyForex.com.
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**Fundamental Overview**
The week ahead brings significant developments from both sides of the Atlantic:
– **UK Economic Data**
– *GDP Growth Rate*: The revised Q2 GDP figure is anticipated after preliminary numbers came in below expectations. Any upward revision could provide a supportive boost to sterling.
– *Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales*: Both indicators are crucial in gauging domestic spending and economic resilience amidst continued inflationary pressures.
– *Bank of England (BoE) Policy Sentiment*: Recent commentary from BoE policymakers suggested cautious optimism regarding inflation but continued concern over wage growth and services inflation.
– **US Economic Data**
– *Durable Goods Orders*: A barometer for capital spending and business investment outlook in the US.
– *Preliminary GDP (Q2) Results*: Second readings often see revisions that can move the US dollar, especially if they surprise relative to expectations.
– *Federal Reserve Minutes*: With recent statements highlighting the “higher for longer” narrative, the market will scrutinize any divergence from this path.
– **Geopolitical & Global Macroeconomic Influences**
– Evolving trade negotiations between the UK and EU have injected intermittent volatility, particularly as discussions around post-Brexit regulatory alignment resurface.
– Ongoing global risk sentiment, driven by speculation about future central bank moves and geopolitical flashpoints in Eastern Europe and Asia, continues to weigh on both safe-haven demand for the US dollar and risk flows into sterling.
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**GBP/USD Technical Analysis**
After a volatile summer, GBP/USD finds itself at a crossroads. The following technical observations are particularly significant for the upcoming week:
– **Weekly Chart Perspective**
– GBP/USD spent most of July and early August consolidating in a broad 1.2560 to 1.2880 range.
– Momentum indicators on the weekly chart, including RSI and MACD, point to a weakening bullish trend, with RSI hovering in neutral territory around 53.
– Price action is currently trapped below the 200-day EMA, which remains a strong resistance zone and indicator of longer-term sentiment.
– **Daily Support and Resistance Levels**
– Immediate support is found at 1.2600, with secondary support at 1.2560 (previous swing low and psychological level).
– Key resistance is situated at 1.2790, marked by July swing highs. A decisive break above would open door to 1.2880.
– If bears seize control, a drop below 1.2560 could trigger deeper losses toward 1.2460 and then the May low at 1.2370.
– **Moving Averages**
– The 50-day moving average is still trending above the 200-day, yet the spread is narrowing, indicating reduced bullish conviction.
– Price action straddling the 1.2700 level marks a significant battleground for bulls and bears alike.
– **Chart Patterns**
– A potential head-and-shoulders pattern is emerging on the four-hour chart, with a neckline near the 1.2600 zone. Confirmation of this pattern could foreshadow a downside break.
– Alternatively, a bullish breakout above 1.
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