Title: Elliott Wave Analysis: USDJPY Outlook as of September 1st, 2025
Original Author: EWM Interactive
Repurposed and Expanded by Assistant
The USDJPY currency pair has been closely watched by market participants as its trend over recent months has provided valuable insights into the strength of the US dollar and sentiment toward the Japanese yen. By applying Elliott Wave analysis, traders can gain a deeper understanding of the structure, progression, and potential future trajectory of price action in the forex market. The original analysis by EWM Interactive on September 1st, 2025 presents a technical roadmap based on Elliott Wave Theory, which we will explore in greater depth in this extended article.
Introduction to Elliott Wave Theory in Forex Trading
Before delving into the specific USDJPY chart analysis, it’s worth taking a moment to understand the Elliott Wave Principle and how it applies to forex markets:
– Elliott Wave Theory, developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott, proposes that markets move in predictable wave patterns corresponding to crowd psychology.
– In a complete cycle, impulsive waves move in the direction of the primary trend; these are labeled 1 through 5.
– Corrective waves move against the trend and are typically labeled A, B, and C.
– The fractal nature of waves means each wave itself can be broken down into smaller waves consistent with the overall pattern.
This model allows analysts to categorize price behavior and forecast likely future movements with higher accuracy.
USDJPY: The Larger Context
Looking at the broader trend, the USDJPY pair has been in a long-term uptrend that started back in early 2021. What began as a retracement from the 102 level has evolved into a substantial bullish movement, carrying prices above 145 in 2023 and sustaining that momentum into 2025.
Key long-term developments observed in the USDJPY:
– Starting Point: The uptrend arguably began from the low of 102.59 registered in January 2021.
– Sustained Bullish Action: From 2021 to 2023, the series of higher highs and higher lows aligned with an impulsive wave count.
– Current Coordinates: As of September 1st, 2025, the USDJPY trades around 150.60 after a powerful rally through the year.
This trend setup provides the foundation for the Elliott Wave analysis presented by EWM Interactive.
Wave Count Analysis of USDJPY
According to EWM Interactive’s chart, the USDJPY seems to be nearing the top of a larger degree impulsive move that began in 2021. The analysis suggests the currency pair is likely in Wave (5) of a five-wave impulsive cycle.
Here is the detailed breakdown of the wave structure interpreted on the daily chart:
– Wave (1): Begins at 102.59 and concludes near 111.70
– Wave (2): A deep corrective move that retraces to approximately 104.30
– Wave (3): A strong rally reaching over 139.00, reflecting a classic extended third wave
– Wave (4): A sideways corrective structure that corrects Wave (3) and retraces down to 128.60
– Wave (5): The current wave, which has extended toward 150.60 as of September 2025
This five-wave sequence appears to be taking place within a much larger wave C, meaning this movement could be the final segment of a larger corrective structure (A-B-C).
Implications of Wave (5) Maturity
If the labeling of wave (5) is accurate, it implies that the current rally may be approaching its terminal phase. The conclusion of wave (5) would indicate the end of the upward cycle from 2021. As Elliott Wave Theory posits, once a five-wave impulse concludes, a larger three-wave correction (in the opposite direction) is expected to follow.
Key takeaways from this possibility:
– The uptrend since 2021 is potentially losing momentum.
– A significant
Explore this further here: USD/JPY trading.