**Weekly Forex Analysis: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and More**
*Adapted and expanded from an analysis by Eren Sengezer, FXStreet. Additional information included from sources such as DailyFX and Investing.com.*
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## Introduction
The Forex market enters a new week as global macroeconomic dynamics continue to cast significant influence over major currency pairs. Central bank policy expectations, inflation data, and shifting risk sentiment have all impacted price action. This comprehensive analysis will cover the technical and fundamental outlook for the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and other key pairs, providing traders with up-to-date insights to inform their trading decisions.
## Macro Backdrop
### Federal Reserve Outlook
– The Federal Reserve (Fed) remains focused on its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.
– Recent US inflation data surprised to the upside, with Core CPI coming in hotter than expected.
– Fed officials signal a data-dependent approach, with markets pricing in a delayed start to any potential rate cuts.
– The US dollar (DXY) retains strength on expectations that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer.
### Eurozone and ECB Policy
– The European Central Bank (ECB) struck a moderately dovish tone, expressing concerns over sluggish economic growth.
– Headline inflation appears to be trending lower, but core inflation remains somewhat sticky.
– Market consensus is for the ECB to start easing by the middle of the year, potentially before the Fed.
### UK Economic Picture
– The Bank of England (BoE) faces challenging circumstances, with elevated inflation and sluggish growth.
– Recent UK data revealed persistent inflation above the central bank’s target.
– Wages continue to rise, supporting consumer spending but complicating the BoE’s easing outlook.
### Australia and RBA
– The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remains cautious on policy, citing lingering inflationary pressures and a mixed labor market.
– Resilience in commodity prices provides some support for the Australian dollar.
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## Technical and Fundamental Analysis by Pair
### EUR/USD
#### Fundamental Overview
– The EUR/USD faces pressure as US data supports dollar strength and the ECB leans dovish.
– Weak German manufacturing and services data highlight persistent challenges in the eurozone’s largest economy.
– The widening monetary policy divergence adds to euro downside risks.
#### Technical Outlook
– After failing to break above the 1.0900 resistance, EUR/USD drifted lower, last trading near 1.0700.
– The pair trades below both the 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), reflecting bearish momentum.
– The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart remains below 50, not yet signaling oversold conditions.
#### Key Levels
– **Support:** 1.0650, then 1.0600
– **Resistance:** 1.0775 (minor), then 1.0830 and 1.0900
#### Summary
– Unless euro
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