Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/USD for September 1st, 2025
By EWM Interactive (Credit: EWMinteractive.com)
The Elliott Wave Principle remains one of the most effective methodologies for analyzing market cycles. By identifying recurring patterns in the price movements of financial instruments, analysts can project potential future behavior with increased confidence. A detailed Elliott Wave analysis of the EUR/USD pair as of September 1st, 2025, reveals a complex but insightful long-term and short-term outlook for the Euro-Dollar exchange rate.
This article explores the recent structure of EUR/USD using Elliott Wave Theory, breaks down the current count, examines corrective and impulse waves, and discusses the most likely scenarios going forward. The information and counts presented here are based on research and charts developed by the analysts at EWM Interactive.
Overview of Recent EUR/USD Price Behavior
Over the past several months, EUR/USD has undergone significant fluctuations, largely driven by geopolitical tensions, central bank monetary policies, and inflationary concerns in both the Eurozone and the United States. The long-term trend has been cautiously bullish since late 2022, but the rally has shown signs of exhaustion in mid-2025. According to Elliott Wave counts, the pair has completed a five-wave cycle on multiple degrees, indicating that a larger correction may soon be under way.
Key Background Factors Influencing the Euro:
– European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decisions
– Inflation rates across major EU nations including Germany, France, and Italy
– Political developments including discussions on fiscal integration
– Energy prices and their impact on manufacturing output
– Post-pandemic economic recovery trajectory
Key Background Factors Affecting the U.S. Dollar:
– Federal Reserve monetary policy including interest rate hikes or pauses
– Employment conditions and payroll growth
– Inflation indicators such as CPI and PPI
– Global capital inflows into or away from the USD
– U.S. debt concerns and fiscal policy implications
With those macroeconomic variables as the context, let’s examine where the EUR/USD exchange rate stands from a technical perspective according to Elliott Wave analysis.
Wave Count Summary As of September 1, 2025
The EUR/USD has completed a five-wave impulse to the upside that began from the lows in 2022. The pattern displays several textbook characteristics, including alternating shallow and deep corrections and subdivided waves within the impulsive legs.
EWM Interactive’s current wave count identifies the following pattern:
– Wave (1): Initiated in late 2022, this wave brought the EUR/USD from around 0.9550 to 1.0850. Strong momentum and increasing trade volume confirmed the legitimacy of this wave as an impulsive move.
– Wave (2): Occurred in the first half of 2023 as a deep corrective wave. The pair retraced over 60 percent of the first wave, reaching support near 1.0000. This movement took the shape of a zigzag correction.
– Wave (3): The most dynamic and extended wave, Wave 3 took EUR/USD from around 1.0000 to above 1.2000 throughout 2023 and into early 2024. This wave included a series of powerful rallies triggered by economic divergence between the U.S. and the EU.
– Wave (4): Formed a sideways correction from January to May 2024, creating a contracting triangle. It moved between 1.1850 and 1.1350, frustrating short-term traders but confirming the principle of alternation.
– Wave (5): The final upward movement of the impulse, peaking in early August 2025 just under 1.2500. This wave showed waning momentum and divergence on RSI indicators, suggesting a weakening bullish trend.
Divergences Confirm Impulsive Wave Completion
Technical tools show clear divergences at the top of Wave 5:
– RSI diverged significantly from price, indicating a loss of momentum.
– MACD histogram failed to
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