**Weekly Forex Forecast for DXY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and NZD/USD**
*Original analysis by Justin Bennett for Forex Factory*
—
The past week in the foreign exchange markets brought a wave of volatility as participants responded to shifting economic data, geopolitical tensions, and recalibrated expectations for central bank policy. As we look ahead to the coming week, it’s crucial to examine the technical setups and macro risk factors driving the US Dollar Index (DXY), as well as key pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and NZD/USD.
Below is an in-depth, technical and macro-focused weekly forecast for these major forex pairs, incorporating trend analysis, support and resistance zones, and critical economic events that may sway market direction.
—
### US Dollar Index (DXY)
#### Technical Landscape
– The DXY ended the week near 104.50, consolidating after the post-nonfarm payrolls whipsaw
– The index has formed a short-term symmetrical triangle amid uncertainty over the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts
– Resistance is visible in the 104.80-105.00 zone, coinciding with recent price highs and a trendline from December 2023
– The 104.20 level offers short-term support, followed by more robust demand at 103.90
#### Macro Fundamentals
– US data has remained resilient, but labor market cracks are emerging
– Fed officials maintain a cautious tone, advocating ‘higher for longer’ rates, yet softer inflation may revive rate cut bets
– Next week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) releases are salient event risks
#### DXY Trade Scenarios
– Sustained upside through 105.00 could ignite a run toward 105.50–105.70, especially if CPI surprises to the upside
– A downward break below 104.20 and 103.90 may see bears target 103.45 and 103.00
– Range trading is likely until data delivers a definitive catalyst
—
### EUR/USD
#### Technical Landscape
– EUR/USD closed the week near 1.0790 after an early retreat followed by a recovery
– Price action has produced a sequence of lower highs since late December, hinting at ongoing bearish pressure
– The 1.0800 region is a pivotal battleground as both bulls and bears jostle for control
– Nearest support comes in at 1.0720 (recent swing low) and 1.0690 (horizontal level from October)
– Strong resistance is overhead at 1.0860 and 1.0900, where multiple rejections have occurred since early February
#### Macro Fundamentals
– The Eurozone continues to contend with soft economic data, particularly weakened manufacturing and consumer sentiment
– European Central Bank (ECB) rate cut expectations are entrenched, with markets pricing a first cut by June
– US-Eurozone policy divergence and economic momentum continue to favor the dollar, limiting EUR/USD upside
#### EUR/USD Trade Scenarios
– Bulls need a clean break and daily close above 1.0860 to attempt another push toward 1.0900-1.0930
– Failure at resistance and a return below 1.0800 could spark renewed selling toward 1.0720 and potentially 1.0690
– Watch out for increased volatility around the US inflation figures and ECB commentary next week
—
### GBP/USD
#### Technical Landscape
– GBP/USD posted a weekly close above 1.2600, rallying after finding support at 1.2515
– The pound is oscillating in a broad range between 1.2515 and 1.2815, with no decisive long-term direction
– Immediate resistance lies at 1.2660 (prior highs) and 1.2700 (round number, psychological level)
– Key support is at 1.2580, while the long-term
Read more on GBP/USD trading.