**Weekly Forex Forecast: 14th to 19th September 2025**
*Based on the original article by Daniel John and enriched with expanded analysis and recent trends in the forex market.*
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### Executive Summary
As the forex market approaches the week of September 14th to September 19th, 2025, traders brace for pivotal movements across all major currency pairs. Lingering effects from central bank policy stances, ongoing geopolitical shifts, and evolving macroeconomic data will shape the currency landscape. This week’s forecast delves into the likely trajectories for the major pairs, including EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and more, with expanded analysis drawn from recent global economic developments.
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## Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic environment remains complex. Key themes affecting the forex market this week include:
– **Central Bank Policy Divergence**: The US Federal Reserve’s “higher-for-longer” interest rate stance contrasts with the more cautious outlooks from the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE).
– **Inflation Pressures**: Persistent inflation challenges central banks’ mandates, particularly in the Eurozone and the US.
– **Geopolitical Risks**: Ongoing tensions in Eastern Europe and the Asia-Pacific region continue to add volatility to global markets.
– **Commodity Price Fluctuations**: Oil price swings directly impact energy-linked currencies, such as the Canadian Dollar and Norwegian Krone.
– **Data Releases**: Key economic data scheduled for release include US CPI, UK employment figures, and EU trade balance reports.
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## Major Currency Pair Forecasts
### EUR/USD
#### Technical Analysis
– **Current Level**: After stabilizing near 1.0800, EUR/USD remains under pressure in response to diverging central bank policies.
– **Chart Patterns**:
– The pair sits below both the 50-day and 200-day Moving Averages, reflecting sustained bearish momentum.
– Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates the market is not yet oversold, hinting at potential for further downside.
– **Support Levels**: 1.0750, 1.0640.
– **Resistance Levels**: 1.0900, 1.1000.
#### Fundamental Factors
– Eurozone economic data has shown pockets of resilience but freshness of inflation remains a concern.
– ECB policymakers are reluctant to tighten further given growth risks, while the US dollar benefits from a hawkish Fed and safe haven demand.
– A break below 1.0750 could trigger increased selling pressure; conversely, recovery above 1.0900 would attract buyers.
#### Market Sentiment
– Net positioning reflects lingering bearishness on the euro, compounded by cautious investor outlooks ahead of US inflation data.
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### GBP/USD
#### Technical Analysis
– **Current Level**: Trading near 1.2600, GBP/USD has retraced sharply from mid-year highs.
– **Chart
Read more on AUD/USD trading.