Pairs in Focus: 28th September to 3rd October 2025
Original Article by Teddy Savela, DailyForex
(Adapted and Expanded)
The week spanning from 28th September to 3rd October 2025 is expected to present significant trading opportunities across key currency pairs. As geopolitical, economic, and technical factors align, traders should remain vigilant and stay prepared for potential volatility. The following analysis delves into the technical setups and market sentiment for major forex pairs, with a closer look at key resistance and support levels that could guide trading decisions in the coming days.
EUR/USD: Approaching Key Resistance
The EUR/USD pair has been gathering strength recently. The US dollar has weakened modestly against the euro over the past two weeks, aided by shifting US economic outlooks and ECB policy optimism.
Highlights:
– The euro has found support near the 1.0600 level and has been slowly reclaiming footing toward 1.0700.
– From a technical perspective, a bullish rebound initiated at 1.0570 has elevated the pair close to a resistance zone near 1.0720–1.0740.
– If this upward trajectory continues and breaks above 1.0750, the focus may shift towards the next key level at 1.0820.
– On the downside, the nearest support lies at 1.0600. A break below this level could expose the pair to 1.0520 and potentially as low as 1.0460.
Fundamentals to Watch:
– European Central Bank policy stance: If the ECB maintains its slightly hawkish tone, it may support continued upward movement.
– US Federal Reserve trajectory: Slower-than-expected economic growth or dovish remarks from Fed officials could add downward pressure on the dollar.
Traders should monitor eurozone inflation data and upcoming Fed speeches for clues on upcoming volatility.
GBP/USD: Volatility Within a Compression Zone
The British pound remains caught in a consolidation phase against the US dollar. Although the GBP/USD has managed to stabilize after a steep drop earlier in September, the recovery is somewhat constrained within a compression channel.
Technical Overview:
– The current trading pattern shows the pair trapped between a rising short-term trendline and a strong horizontal resistance line, forming a symmetrical triangle.
– Resistance is noted around 1.2360–1.2400, with sellers defending this region effectively so far.
– Support can be seen near 1.2160, with deeper demand appearing around 1.2070 if bearish momentum picks up.
Outlook:
– A breakout above 1.2400 may spark renewed bullish interest, pushing the pair toward 1.2480 and potentially even 1.2600.
– Conversely, a breakdown below the support region could target the 1.2000 psychological level, followed by 1.1920.
Economic Variables:
– BOE’s interest rate path: Markets are closely observing whether recent inflation data could prompt dovish reassessments.
– UK fiscal policy and political stability: Budget updates and trade developments with the EU could influence pound sentiment.
USD/JPY: Upward Momentum May Stall at Resistance
The Japanese yen continues to face pressure against the US dollar, with USD/JPY climbing over the previous weeks. However, strong resistance is emerging, potentially placing a ceiling on further rallies.
Key Factors:
– The pair has encountered significant resistance around the 151.60 level.
– If buyers manage to breach this threshold decisively, 152.80 becomes the next likely technical objective.
– Support levels form around 150.10, with secondary support near 149.40.
Market Considerations:
– The upward trend is still largely driven by diverging monetary policies. The Bank of Japan remains accommodative, while the Fed has signaled prolonged higher rates.
– However, with yields already elevated, the USD/JPY pair might experience profit-taking pressure near multi-decade highs.
– Traders should also consider
Explore this further here: USD/JPY trading.